It's never easy is it????
When people make fun of others who can not fathom even the simplest concepts they use the phrase "This isn't brain surgery you know."
Unfortunately, PPHM is brain surgery ---literally.
Now is the time when you really "earn" your money either by "sitting it out" or by averaging in more stock if able. Really big money is made most often with a "combo" (like cancer drugs) of not only brains but of guts.
Brains are much more common than guts. "Guts" are the key ingredient.
The twin cousin of "guts" is "identity". Shareholders of PPHM have to know who they are as an investor. Hold an amount of shares where you can afford the risk and can remain cool and patient under fire. If you don't really know who you are as an investor it will be hard to have the "guts" to win in PPHM (and really hard to win large).
Nothing has changed in the story except it continues to get better and grow larger on balance.
If holders on the "margin" or "on margin" as the case may be, sell for many, many exigent reasons, then so be it. Early stage biotech stocks are violently volatile which I am sure is not news to PPHM shareholders.
The message board keeps pounding mgmt for benefiting from a lower price. This is "patently" absurd IMO. Though mgmt gets some opportunistic benefit from a lower option price, Mgmt would benefit much, much, more from a higher price. There is nothing unusual in the option awards at PPHM vis a vis other biotech companies. BOD IMO appears to have made a strategic decision to continue a "bleeding" dilution through ATM until they are able to find another funding method. Apparently they feel they are closing in on dramatic news. I agree with many that they are still immature in their approach. Where I disagree is that I envision BOD being "forced to mature due to the enormity of the scientific achievement".
Do the math on this option thing. If you are ES or SK or any other Mgmt member it works the same. Let's take Evilivitch as an example since he recently received about 150M calls at something like $2.13 strike. It doesn't much matter whether he strikes at $2.13 or $1.50 or $3.50-- as far as the dilution it is the same. What E wants is to be part of the team that propels this stock to $70/ share. His option strike give or take a dollar is incidental. That's why he is risking coming to an early stage and under financed company. He likes what he sees in the science. The quickest way to get to $70/ share from Mgmt perspective is with the fastest milestones and the least dilution. (I use $70 purely for example)
I agree that the ATM is self defeating and have long advocated mgmt and BOD look for more sophisticated ways to finance. There is, however, some positives to institutions taking size ($5mm type positions) in ATM:
1. These institutions are very diligent in high risk situations. The fact that they are willing to buy an illiquid position is good third party verification.
2. Just like in IPO's the institutions often have, IMO, "tacit"
agreements to raise their positions by multiples if certain milestones occur. Even if there were no tacit agreement they would increase holdings anyway if events unfold positively.
These instituitions represent huge latent buying power if and when the time is right fundamentally.
PPHM can only go to zero and that is not likely. By far and away the most likely reason for small companies to fail is because they can not service their debt. PPHM has almost no debt and has multiple ways to raise cash so failure is unlikely in the foreseeable future.
The world is awash right now with scare stories. One of the things I like about PPHM is that it is a "product/wealth creator" not dependent on a myriad of economic events out of corporate control. I am not saying that capital markets are unimportant as far as short term price movements. What I am saying is that the ultimate price at PPHM will be determined by the sale and market value of products PPHM develops and not by macro economic events.
One more point. Now that the Russell silliness is behind PPHM shareholders I see a new "B" movie horror scare with the old, old story of Dr. B. For the record there have been a lot of horror stories at the FDA --the worst of these have been sins of commission but also, sins of omission. For the record, many independent biotech companies have succeeded at the FDA. There are also many biotech companies that trade at literally billions of dollars of market cap that are not as far along as PPHM at the FDA and are also independent.---"When" you partner is important. Smart posters on this message board have already listed a dozen companies with potentially valuable new drugs that have not partnered yet. The fact that PPHM is not partnered yet does not mean that it will not have partners going forward.
To the same point, IMO, I remain impressed by the PPHM scientific board and their understanding of and "experience" with the FDA. Ditto with PPHM regulatory people and clinical people and manufacturing people. IMO, I would put the "B" horror movie behind us along with the Russell.
Memo to Steve King. It takes one neuron to know that PPHM is still ATM financing. It takes another neuron to know that the price of ATM is important. Tie these two neurons together across a synapse and think about what you say before you say it.
Think about how to communicate in such a way that the real value at PPHM is more clearly enunciated to the investment community at large. Don't be afraid to answer questions from your shareholder/ownership.
Memo to ES: IMO, all you really have to do to double or triple PPHM share price and kill your dilution is to bring two heavyweights, one bio universe connected and one bio financing connected, on the BOD. You'll still have control but you'll also get a breath of fresh thinking, credibility and contacts and you will send a message to the investment community that you believe in the science and that you are serious about capitalizing on it.
IMO, stay focused on:
1. BOD expansion
2. Financial plan "B"
3. Scientific developments
4. Mgmt expansion (re deal making capacity)
5. Partnering
6. New markets like imaging.
I know these are difficult times for all. I only offer my thoughts and opinions. For myself, I add on every lower close. I do not yet see any technical signal that would tell me to increase pace so I am adding slowly because the price is in my target range. IMO, technically I would get more active on a cross first above $2.00 and then $2.25 on high volume. Fundamentally, IMO, I would want to double or triple my position if the balance sheet issues, financing issues, BOD issues become addressed.
Regards and luck to all shareholders.
