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Tuesday, June 14, 2011 12:47:32 AM
Anyway, with all of the pumpers and slammers on this and every forum, I really don't pay much attention to either since I've never seen anyone correctly predict what tomorrow's price is going to be. Never. I personally can guarantee that it's going to go up, down, or sideways. I promise. I've also been burned in the past by CEOs making record profits for the company one day only to declare bankruptcy for the company the day after. So after hearing about a 37 million purchase agreement with LG, my first thought was a bit skeptical. Still is. I emailed Jim and asked him if the press release was true or from a hacker and he confirmed it was true. I've been trying to punch holes in the story to see if this company is a hoax so I'll throw the items below out there for fodder to chew on:
-- I wondered if the PR was 37 million in Canadian or Korean since it didn't say which.
-- I've done a lot of number crunching trying quantify how many tons of torrefied pellets would be sold for 37 million (hard to valuate a commodity that isn't traded on the open market). Assuming similar coal prices (say 100 dollars per short ton), we'd be looking at 370,000 tons per year which is within the scope of the production capacity that they "say" they will have. (I'm assuming short tons and not metric tons)
-- I Googled the company's address to see if it was fictitious and was surprised to see a house in the country. Then later, while reading the company's quarterly report, it confirmed that their office space is out of one of the Director's homes, so what I thought was going to be my "gotcha" turned out to be as reported.
-- Googled the company's officers and found that they appear to have legitimate positions in the industry with one with design and another with construction background in the fields pertinent (from a layman's perspective) to implementing a torrified wood processing plant.
-- As mentioned in another post,there's a similar company in Mississippi doing the same thing. New Biomass Energy through its' subsidiary BTH Quitman Hickory, LLC produces 65,000 tons per year with 250,000 planned. Both are a far cry from Biomass Secure Power's plans. They don't appear to be a publically traded company, but it sure would be nice to find out what their margins are. One interesting read shows testing done using the torrified wood as replacement for coal in a real life application in Springfield, MO. Seeing it actually done makes it look a little less like a voodoo technology to gullable investors (see test burn report here).
Anyway, I'm still skeptical, but the one conclusion I can make is that if this is a hoax, they sure did think of a whopper. I'm still concerned about how they will raise capital to fund their capital costs. I'm afraid of dilution, but I'm hoping that with the banking experience that Jim has, he knows of a way to use the purchase agreement with LG (if true) to secure a loan instead of issuing more shares and diluting my interest in the company. I'm also concerned about competition. If this is a "good thing" does the company hold any patents on their technology that would prevent others from doing the same. It doesn't sound like it. Like most of us though that own the stock, it's one of those things that has potential and makes you start thinking about retirement. Might just be worth holding for that reason alone and day dreaming about the different ways to tell your boss goodbye. :)
Phillip
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