Jbog, I have to agree with you on this. However it is not worth arguing back and forth, belaboring the point.
Roubini works from a macro pov and he is no mkt timer. By the same token, I knew in 04-5 there is a housing bubble going on, but there is no way I can predict the popping point.
By 2007 I was checking ABX indices on markit.com daily ; still all I could see was that the indices stop going up and then one day boom, these different dated ABXs lost 20% in one day and keep cratering ; some to 10-15% of par value by the time the smoke cleared.
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