Since I received no direct answer to my query directed to FF, WH, or CJ regarding whether they thought the data in Cotara was sufficient to double or triple one's position (if able) in PPHM during a down period, I will take that as a "no" and offer my own opinion.
The posters seem to have the excellent ability to research and regurgitate data but , in no way to form an opinion about that data as it pertains to PPHM as an investment.
FF seems to be of the opinion that the FDA will 100% move forward with some form of Phase III for Cotara and as soon as that process is "delineated" he expects a bidding war among BP to break out. While I agree with the first part of his opinion and see no reason why the FDA would not want to go forward with an alternate MOA (in a deadly unmet need) that seems better in many ways to SOC, I take issue with the second part of the opinion about the bidding war. While Cotara looks like it can move the needle for a small company like PPHM if it builds to several hundred million in revenue, that size revenue will not move the needle greatly for BP. IMO the so called "bidding war" will be strictly limited by a profit analysis of this market vs BP cost structure not small pharma structure. (The only way I mitigate this opinion is if BP sees a much larger usage for this technology in other hard tumors.)
Since there are only a limited amount of centers in the US that will be able to handle the radioactive materials and perform this surgery, IMO there is a growing probability that PPHM will want to keep the US market for itself and sell other regions of the globe where appropriate. The probabilities are a function of the size of any upfront offer IMO. If an offer is large enough incl of royalties, to fund the company for sufficient time, kill the need for ATM, and kill the going concern letter, then PPHM might take it. If the offer is not large enough PPHM may want to directly market Cotara. Thus far I have not noticed a marketing build up but I think it pays to keep an eye out for any build in that area.
This conjecture heightens the need for sophisticated financial advice and planning for PPHM. So far the company remains very "retarded" in this area both at a BOD and mgmt level IMO. I continue to watch keenly for a build up in the financial capability of PPHM in the same way they have staffed up for scientific, production, and regulatory areas.
Mgmt has been very reluctant to discuss financial planning. This has moved past the point where it is wise. If mgmt believes they have created options for financing (as they should since they are increasing the burn rate), they should be willing to say so. Ditto on the conference calls. If mgmt believes they are on the right track, they should not limit debate and they should be prepared to support their course of action. This mgmt appears to be "hiding" and the market place is giving them a vote of no confidence. There is a "clear line" between giving away proprietary information and having a general discussion. PPHM cc's IMO are bordering on "cowardice". On the next cc PPHM should restrict the usual analyst softball questions and throw the floor open to any and all questions from their shareholder/ownership. The analysts talk to the company anyway and that conversation is reflected in their reports, so we don't need to waste a lot of time with them.
Since conservatively IMO PPHM could do between $300mm-600mm in revenue in Cotara and sell at least at one times sales divided by say 100mm shares, I think Cotara might be worth $3-6/ share "stand alone". (Remember, this is very conservative and Cotara might be worth two times sales IMO if the profit margins warranted it.) Add in something for foreign sales and rights and something for all the other parts of the company surrounding Bavi viral and cancer and my opinion would be to continue accumulating stock--- particularly in periods of weakness.
In a prior post I had indicated I would like to accumulate at lower prices and some how was either misinterpreted or criticized for this objective. The lowest price I have ever been able to buy stock was .25/share pre split or $1.25 in current pricing. Anywhere between $1.25 and $2.00 per share would seem to be reasonable to me as the science is easily many , many times the value it was at the old lows.
I would only increase my pace of accumulation if I saw fundamental improvement in mgmt, BOD, financing, or if I saw major improvement in some aspect of Bavi fundamentals. The longer term potential of Bavi remains staggering if one considers the implications of Thorpe's work on MOA and is still to be known in the fullness of time.
Regards,
RRdog
AI
