Analysis - Thursday, December 26, 2002 8 p.m.
At the highs today the Dow was up over 100 points. The market then began a fairly sharp pullback, and the Dow closed down 15 points, with the Nasdaq down 4.59.
The market has tried to rally this week, but so far the rally has not been especially successful. So far the Dow has failed to exceed the important resistance at 8639 on a print basis, and 8650 intraday. Even at the highs today the Dow reached a print high today of 8565.01, still well below the 8639 level we have discussed most of this week.
The 3-Day Chart turned up last week, and is still pointing upward at this time. However, the 3-Day Chart will turn back down tomorrow if the Dow falls below 8392.25 intraday. Any decline below 8420 on a print basis tomorrow will suggest a probable decline below 8392.23 intraday, turning the Gann 3-Day Chart down. That would suggest that an even stronger correction is coming over the short term.
If the 3-Day Chart does turn down tomorrow, there is support to any decline in this time frame near 8200, plus or minus 20 points in the Dow. The market has for the most part been trading sideways for the last ten trading days. This pattern is typical during the month of December. We would not read too much into the market action from here until the last trading day of the year 2002. The real action, that is the important action, will begin during the first week of January.
AI
