The thing that amazes me is this:
- Either the data sucks, and I'm among the last to know about it (highly doubtful);
- Rida announces positive results early in 2011, and the stock goes from $5.50 to $7.50. Everyone sees the data and knows of the 3 week PFS. Now, having seen this, only an idiot would assume that the O.S. numbers are going to be miraculous (what were people expecting?).
- The stock then goes from $5.75 to $9.50 based on....? Ponatinib? Ridaforolimus ASCO presentation? They release the abstract and the 2 months O.S. numbers aren't enough and they dump the stock to the tune of nearly 20% subsequently.
So, WTF, are people expecting out of the ASCO presentation? My take is there are macro guys selling and dumping all risk assets. There are also a lot of morons at hedge funds who are not biotech oriented who have no knowledge of why they really own the stock, other than they probably bought it because it was a "CURE" for sarcoma and then they see the data and they panic because there is "only" a two month O.S. (at data cutoff). Did any of those people dumping really expect a vastly significant O.S. scale?? What were they actually looking for? 3 months OS? 5 months OS? Now, the stock is essentially in a technical free-for-all dump.
Any way you cut it, Ridaforolimus is going to be approved. There are a lot of morons out there in the hedge fund industry (60% of the ownership of the float) who probably do not understand what they're even looking at when looking at the data - they're basically "advanced-retail" guys with a lot of money. I really don't think there is enough of a retail following to make this thing tank the way it has lately. I expect the O.S. numbers to improve significantly since the last data cutoff date - - however, is it going to be enough for a moron to figure out that it is sufficient? Who knows.
Right now, I feel like I'm on the losing side of the trade, and a moron is winning...and I don't like it. Oh wait, I might be the moron for not dumping....
