I like your 12 month chances too-
In fact, I like them so much that I'm currently waiting to acquire 50 Jan12 5.00 calls at 3.50(since I think we should see significant results on several fronts within only 6 months(also have an order in at 3.30)).
I'm the only one waiting(about 150 at 3.40), and should get them on a drop below 8.
Though I will admit that these buys may not look too good for a brief period, since I believe the global economy(which is what our stock market is increasingly more predicated on)is not that bad, I think the world will continue to muddle along, which is all that's required for a company with real, essential health products, like Ariad, to prosper.
I think the underwhelming market reaction to this morning's latest indication of a truly horrible local US economy proves the point.
Just waiting for a little more erosion courtesy of all those short-term thinkers.
Best,
bw