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Monday, May 30, 2011 5:06:31 AM
often the investor is forced to justify the loss by applying a strategy to the business plan (failed or otherwise). With a company like Identa which absolutely refuses to give away anything tangible after nearly 8 years... it's perfectly logical to anticipate something of a major misfire in the business plan.
Here is what I think took place. 9/11 provided many opportunities for small companies to make large sums of money quickly. Glattstein and his chosen CEO saw the opportunity and tried to present the detectors in the most favourable light possible only the company needed to go public why? Raise more money of course uh-DUH
![wink](/images/emoticon03.gif)
The major misfire I see was the company went public two years after 9-11 as a potential pinksheet powerhouse with very few shares out. It was perceived by the market from the get go in an opportunist's light instead of an established enterprise experienced in counter-terrorism. It is easily conceivable none of the claimed closed contracts ever amounted to the numbers bandied about in innumerable forward looking PR's. So the contingency to the business plan was to hype the now multi-billion share heap to great heights and sell shares into the news so at least the company could continue attempting to close meaningful contracts.
I'm of the belief this management had they closed something of meaningful size would have disclosed that by now, in fact very soon after. I'm also of the strong belief management never intended to disclose any crunchable financial information because management has known unto themselves for years they would need to sell shares to make any go of it because the kits had a very limited appeal industrial, retail or otherwise.
I recall my first inkling something was seriously amiss was when (AH) Armor Holdings bowed out of the detector business on Identa's claim of $8 million annual revenue. Identa's share price failed to improve consistent with the cornered market they now claimed to have firmly within there clutches. I do feel investors would have faired better if management had simply disclosed the low sales numbers with management's resolve to improve rather than hype the hades out of nefarious contracts. The illusory contracts never propelled the PPS much of any where but steadily averaged downward for the last 12-18 months.
What I think most undermines share price is the constant and consistent babble coupled with the company's need to sell shares for "expenses" regardless of the plunging PPS. Through failed developments like military contracts, UNODC, Buyback, Merger, Homeland Security, National Police Forces contracts, Retail, and the egregious outright failure of the current information reporting initiative I think it's crystal clear the company is only interested in what works for them. Right now and for years and years all that has worked for management is the old pump&dump. Hype the rumor mill to a fever pitch and then turn the focus on another colossal future contract.
The one thing that is wrong with that is after so many years of crushing disappointment nobody would believe this CEO even if he did close a sizeable contract...UNLESS he disclosed it comprehensively enough for the market to believe him. In the failure of the current information reporting I think this CEO has fallen on his sword of meaningless hype because there is no reason why he couldn't have produced the financials and/or transparency to improve Identa's pinksheet listing. Moreover the CEO refuses to give an explanation or even an obligatory apology for this daunting failure in fiduciary duty.
The only logical conclusion is Identa's revenue would not support the billions of shares management diluted with and that disclosure would give away the obvious. Identa needs to R/S because it cannot afford to buyback until the billions of shares out there approach or reach ZERO in value. Even then it could go either way depending on how much further management decide to go with this failing company.
In my view the answer is clearly obvious and quite unavoidable, this company needs to R/S at some stage and soon. The share structure prohibitively bloated and unsustainable, management has seriously misled shareholders repeatedly and there isn't a shred of evidence this company is making any money despite documented assurances to the contrary.
Until this or replacement management PROVES something of substance accomplished for the shareholder I'm out, ALL OUT. With all these shares Identa is not even worth flipping any more. Call in the SPCA this dog has had it's day.
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