JLS I do think a tremendous amount of Puts are purchased every month as insurance for large positions, no doubt about it. If you look at SPY out of the money Put positions all the way down to 120, they way out weigh the number of out of the money Call positions sitting above the market. But regardless of why the bets are made they are made and from Market Maker perspective they stand to do much better if most positions just melt away that are out of the money. So I do believe as expiration approaches there is a tendency for price to seek a narrow range and hold it. When we do make a Bigger move near expiration the move tends to go farther then most expect and I believe that is do to Market Makers needing to Delta Hedge positions that are now vunerable/expensive to them.
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