Portfolio down 2.9%, Dow down 2.39%, Nasdaq down 4.80%, S&P500 down 2.41%, J-Blimps down 7.6%, Fuel cells/Alt Energy down 0.5%, Gorilla Hunters down 7.4%, Gilder2001 down 7.4%, OC-192 down 7.3%%.
NYSE Volume: 1.23 bln...Adv: 1303...Dec: 1764
Up Volume 332.10 Down Volume 881.84 day 1 of 2/1
New Highs 126 New Lows 62 day 1 of 2/1
Nasdaq Volume: 2.01 bln...Adv: 1375...Dec: 2258
Up Volume 259.35 Down Volume 1688.39 Capitulation amount on downside
New Highs 35 New Lows 185 Huge seven days
Put/Call ratio 0.58 (Range 0.44 to 0.58) Bullish
Under 0.40 is Very Bullish sentiment, 0.40-59 Bullish, 0.60-0.79, Neutral, 0.800-0.99 Bearish, Over 1.00 Very Bearish. When many are bullish, this may be time to take profit.
April natural gas $5.28 per million British thermal units. Up 25 cents.
VIX 35.04 up
When it runs below 20, usually a good time to take some profits. If above 35, good time to buy. The VIX, intraday, hit 37.72 on Dec. 21 and posted a 52-week high of 41.53 in last April's carnage.
Sector Watch
Breakout of the day
Paper ($FPP) 306.98 +4.89 +1.62% Lower interest rates help this indebted sector.
Collapse of the day
Biotechs ($BTK) 462.20 -37.28 -7.46% Goat hero, goat. Collapse below key support level of 480 leave more downside.
QQQ at $40 Chart: Collapse below support. Blocks: 832/875 neg for 4 days. Volume%: 80
One stock
Solectron (SLR) down 11.17% AG Edwards downgrades to ACCUMULATE from BUY citing poor visibility and lowers price target to $35 from $60; believes Q3 is the trough as Q4 is expected to be at least flat and perhaps modestly better.
Note: Missed and took whole sector down.
Portfolio Watch
MDT, UCL, DRMD, BGP were green.
Medtronic (MDT) up 1.24% Gruntal & Co reiterates OUTPERFORMER rating after company presents positive results on its MIRACLE trial this morning. Believes that the MIRACLE trial will be positive and that company will battle Guidant (GDT) for leadership in heart failure market. SG Cowen suggests that the numbers from the study of advanced heart failure patients are likely to be viewed favorably. However, this patient group represents a very small slice of the total patient pool with the data not apt to alter physicians' views. ABN AMRO believes that today's release of positive trial data as a significant event, noting concerns in the marketplace that MDT was three months behind its competitor Guidant (GDT) introducing a new product for heart failure.
Note: Good news indeed.
A recap of the rate cut as run on The Thread
“I think the thread consensus is .50 with a sell-off. We'll see how good we are soon. “ Dale Weaver 1:44
“Good timing... about the time FOMC speaks, California's rolling blackouts will begin... per CNBC.” Sirrealistic 1:41
“the suspense is killing me” baldy 2:13pm
“LOL, the thread called it so far, .50! “ Dale Weaver 2:13
“50 built in. what do we do now.” Smart money 2:15
“we stick our head out and start to puke” Baldy 2:16
“50% CUTS here, FOMC risks toward economic weakness. Now Maria is trying to spread the doom and gloom, Capitulation came last Friday.” Handson 2:16
In the Stock Manipulation Theory and Conspiracy Handbook, we should get a 50 pts rate cut with huge whoosh down followed by the large hedge funds scooping up shares on the cheap. Tommorrow or EOD today will be a runup. CNBC will cooperate by talk of a further testing of the bottom. <gg> Jack 2:17
“Too early to go long Kevin, let it run a while” Jack 2:20
“it went down 30 points in 5 minutes, then went back up 30 points in the following 5 minutes, then it went down 30 points again ... hee hee hee, ain't that fun “ Baldy 2:34
“Why buy now! See if we hold the low of today. “ Handson 2:38
“The MMs and CNBC going to play the cut as bad farking news, but the big money is buying if it dips 3-4%. Then we'll see a bear trap set and short squeeze sprung. Just think like a ruthless mofo brokerage with alot of cash.” Jack 2:38
“The disgust may come next, hang on to your hats. “ Dale 2:44
“So far, the thread called it right on the button, 1/2 with a selloff. “ Dale 2:51
“I have a feeling that this market is going to break through to the low 1800, while the big boys load up and Greenie will conveniently do an intrameeting rate cut ...of course, the individual investors will get fark on the way down and on the way up ...that is MMs favorite pastime Baldy 2:57
“When people realize We have had 3 cuts this year with one intra meeting and the FOMC stating concern of continued risks of economic weakness, money will come back in from the sidelines. Pisani is a nerd but Him, Joe and Tyler are at least objective re market conditions. A 1/2 point cut is good for a company like WCOM.” Handson 3:02
“dude, the MMs monitor this thread, you are farked ... welcome to this spanking session “ Baldy 3:10
“Fark.INTC...new 52 week low...new closing low. “ silenttype 3:12
“Greenie gave the longs the finger and told 'em to ben dover.” Teri garner 3:24
“smart money ain't buying yet, IMO. We could get more margin selling tomorrow, IMO” Dale 3:26
“US equity mkts now on elevator ride to H E L L. “ Teri 3:28
“CNBC is such a joke. They act is if everyone is surprised by only getting 50 basis points. I love how they set it up all week long, and say the public was dissappointed. “ Kevinmark 3:40
“34.57 on the vix is not high enough. This is not over till it get to 40. “ Wes Stevens 3:41
“CSCO a teenager again 19 5/8” finigan 3:41
“Looking to get back in when VIX goes over 35. April 2000 VIX got to 40,,, 1997 it got to 50,,1998 it hit 60 one day. highest it has been since they tracked it as far as I know. “ Cray 3:47
“Greenie just buried the longs in a casket on the Titanic for good.... “ Teri 3:50
“Well I had targeted 3-4% for the downside and we are at 4.17%. I think I might buy on the gap down tomorrow as the selling is not basing.” Jack 3:51
“Can't believe so many were looking for 75/100 point cut today....50 was all he was going to do as we all posted. “ Bsims 3:55
“new low. Yippee. Huzzah. Steenkin' pimple lickin front loading farkle boinking finger lifting heiny baring market.” Sirealist 3:55
“Remember the person who hung on to yesterday's rally comes home and see this mess and will sell it at the market open. The mofo ruthless brokerages and hedge funds are painting this all red to the average person. Overseas markets will tank on the news so this will exacerbate the fear to the last of the hangerons. The bear trap will set at the open.” Jack
Watch List things to watch but not trade
For the Dow since 1971, the average performance for the month following the third rate cut is 1.99%. The average month for the Dow overall is 0.79%.
The average performance for the year following the third rate cut is 22.42%. The average year for the Dow overall is 10.32% Per Don Luskin of Metamarkets
Note: Knock, knock, are you listening? Bet with the odds, dammit.
Richardson Elec (RELL) Reports Q3 earnings of $0.29 a share, in line with the First Call consensus estimate, vs year-ago earnings of $0.20; revenues rose 26.9% to $125.47 mln from a year-ago of $98.87 mln. Additionally, Edward Richardson, Chairman and CEO, indicated that management remains comfortable with analyst estimates for Q4;
Note: Not a bad report.
Singapore's ST Assembly Test Services <STTS.O> said it would suffer a first quarter loss of US$23 million to US$25 million and revenues would be about 50 percent lower compared with the fourth quarter of last year. Weaker demand came from customers across the board, chairman and chief executive officer Tan Bock Seng said in a conference call with analysts on Tuesday after the profit warning. "There is no one customer that we are aware of that is not expecting some slow down," Tan said.
ST Assembly's top customers in the first quarter were Analog Devices Inc <ADI.N>, Alcatel SA <CGEP.PA>, Broadcom Corp <BRCM.O>, Infineon Technologies AG <IFXGn.DE> and Marvell Technology Group Ltd <MRVL.O>.
Note: No help to these.
Jabil Circuit (JBL) Company reports Q2 EPS of $0.21, $0.01 better than consensus on revenues of $1.2 bln vs $838 mln in the year-ago period. JBL is warning for Q3 and Q4; sees Q3 EPS of $0.15-0.18 vs estimate of $0.25;
After SLR yesterday, no surprise.
Applied Micro (AMCC) Now hearing from sources that the company, while not guiding lower, did express considerable caution about the macroeconomic outlook, and that this might lead to some further reduction in analysts' estimates, particularly for the June qtr.
Note: Again sector is tough
Quote of the Day
"The possibility that this excess could continue for some time and the potential for weakness in global economic conditions suggest substantial risks that demand and production could remain soft. In these circumstances, when the economic situation could be evolving rapidly, the Federal Reserve will need to monitor developments closely." Greenspan
Ttranslation: We got more of that money if necessary.
Summary
Despite hitting the numbers for a decline today, we need to get the put/call a little more bearish before buying some more.
Hearing media bleat how bad the stocks sold off all evening. Let’s hope the selling is done then.
Jack
