from sh
The lowest Allana will trade at once in production is $38.25 per share...and this is based on the lowest rate of extractraction of our potash from Solution Mining...The price per share is based on the industry leader and its current multiple of 15.7 times earnings per share.
If Allana produces 3 million tonnes instead of the 2 million used below...then the share price WILL BE $ $49.70 per share. The article quotes clearly tell us that there is no more potash to increase on the supply side...new mines are going to be the solution in the next few years. The bottom line is that NO producing miner will trade at less than one years EPS (earnings per share)...period. Allana is 2 years from production and a projected worst case senario of EPS of $2.44 per share. You do the math and if I am wrong...lets discuss it...thats what this board is so valuable for doing. I stand behind my numbers and hope it helps shareholders understand where this company is going. Each Milestone that Farhad achieves moves us closer to our reality and rightful valuation. Dundee got very excited with the recent talk of Open Pit Mining....90% extraction rate might have something to do with it...one milestone at a time...
Karma
Potash Corp. PR April 28, 2011 closed today Wednesday at $52.69 per share.
Earnings came out today at
.84 cents per share compared with the
.80 the market had expected.
.84 cents EPS x 4 quarters = (estimate for 2011) $3.36 per share EPS
$52.69 trading today / $3.36 per share EPS = Potash Corp. trading at 15.7 times earnings
Allana Utilizing Long Term Financing Debt Option:
2 million tonnes of KCL per year x $450 per tonne (based on Dundee Report)
+ $90 per tonne (for SOP 40% premium) - $130 opex = $410 net per tonne - (China Minerals 20% offtake discount of $100 = $20 million discount for 5 years)
2 million x $410 p tonne = $820 million - $78 million Interest and Principal =
$742 / 180 million shares = $4.12 EPS x 15,7 times earnings = $64.70 per AAA Share
(This calculation assumes $52 million dollars of interest paid per year plus $26 million repayment of the principal loan of $520 million over 20 years.)
Interesting that the recent released WPX Resource Estimate assumes a 36% extraction rate from deep solution mining techinique to allow for caverns and to prevent cave ins. So, even if we assume such low extraction rate for Allana with Open Pit (90% estimated extraction rate) plus (36% extraction rate) for Solution Mining
We get an overall extraction rate of 63%. Not sure if Ercosplan will use a similar low extraction rate as a worst case senario for the Ethiopian Basin? So taking this into consideration and applying it to the actual tonnage mined, Allana can expect the projected 2 million tonnes x 63% =
1.26 million tonnes x $410 p tonne = $ 516 million - $78 million Interest and Principal =
$438 / 180 million shares = $2.44 EPS x 15.7 times earnings = $38.25 per AAA Share
"As higher prices for our core nutrient continued to take hold, we began to demonstrate the powerful earnings potential of our company," Bill Doyle, the PotashCorp chief executive, said
"Growth in demand for food and fertilizers is supportive for our business and... these powerful trends will lead to even greater opportunities in the years ahead, especially in potash," PotashCorp said BHP expects the demand for potash to increase by about 2 million tonnes per year over the next 4 to 5 years. But where is this 2 million tonnes per year going to come from?? Potash Corp. stated today by the economies of scale allowed by the group running its potash operations near full capacity,
On April 4th, 2011, Credit Suisse stated in an article, "there is only 1.5 million tonnes of excess capacity of potash available from all the major producers in the world"
Currently, "most producers are simply sold out and have large volume commitments to other regions like China", while looking over the next two-to-three years, "there is limited new supply outside of PotashCorp expansions which should keep the market tight over this period".
