Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

REGN…the "as-needed" was not every two months - closer to every 6 weeks…

Actually not. After the initial “loading” period of three months, the average interval between Lucentis doses in the real world is 2-3 months, not six weeks. The annual average of 7-8 treatments for Lucentis comes from monthly dosing during the 3-month loading period and 4-5 doses during the remaining 9-month period. Thus, after the loading period is complete, the average interval between doses is every two months. When Lucentis treatment is continued beyond one year in the real world, the average interval between doses remains about two months.

Clearly it's going to be a 3-way battle between Lucentis, Avastin and the Trap. If costs dominate, then Avastin wins. If not, then I see no reason why the Trap couldn't eventually split the market with Lucentis.

I respectfully disagree. Insofar as VEGF-Trap-Eye confers no significant advantage relative to Lucentis in efficacy or real-world dosing frequency after the loading period, why would ophthalmologists take a chance on something new rather than something that has a commercial track record of almost a decade? They won’t, IMO.

All told, my assessment of VEGF-Trap-Eye is: great science, bad business. There’s a reason why people refer to such companies as REGN as research boutiques :- )