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Thursday, 05/05/2005 3:48:38 AM

Thursday, May 05, 2005 3:48:38 AM

Post# of 173813
General Motors(GM).......I'm still short, could be setting up for a good sell short entry point for new positions in my opinion..........


from Barry Ritholtz


Bet the Jockey or the Horse?

Wall Street is all a twitter over 87 year old billionaire Kirk Kerkorian's $31 tender bid for GM.

I'm not looking to only be known as a contrarian, but I find much of today's chatter on this to be a bad joke:



· Tracinda is a 3.9% GM holder; Unless they backed up the truck on Monday, that has not been a wining trade; I suspect Kerkorian is buried in the position (just my guess). Indeed, any purchaser since January 2004 is way under water; Hardly the so-called Smart Money its been described as;
· What did Kerkorian do in the 1980s? (Begins with a G) This smells suspiciously similar to me;
· Kerkorian is no spring chicken - is he planning to oversee a 5 year turnaround plan?
· Unlocking value? GM has an absurd debt to equity ratio (Over $200B in Long term debt) . How much value is there to be unlocked?
· If you really want to build a position, you quietly accumulate shares -- you do not scream out I'M A BUYER @ $31!

I can understand the appeal of betting on the jockey - but not when he is riding on a 3 legged horse.


http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/




Rogue

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