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Wednesday, 05/04/2005 9:36:21 PM

Wednesday, May 04, 2005 9:36:21 PM

Post# of 44374
Another long post that covers my MMA (market markers analysis). If you have no interest in this, pass on, no other info here!

I learned a long time ago, if you can't beat them, learn what they do and do the same to win! I hate their actions and the feeling I use to get trading in their play ground. Been trying to change that feeling for 2 years and have come to the point I'm not scared, but I'll run as fast as I can, if the beast's routine changes quickly.

So here's MMA todays thought! LOL

OK I feel better today. MMA (market maker analysis) shows M&MS were back to a normal level of manipulation today.

AT any rate I feel better, that the M&Ms are back to normal manipulation levels.
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MMA
I think it was just after the tumble, after the Stat show, I mentioned watch the EOD stats, to see what the MMs were doing. I'll try to explain how I use this.

Watch the number of trades made each day, the average size of each trade. After a while you'll see a norm. I saw the norm for this period to be;
NORMAL
number of trades each day - 950
the average size of each trade - 10.1k

If the # of trades goes up and size goes up - buying pressure
IF # of trades goes down and size goes up - selling pressure
If they go opposite MMs playing. The larger the gap the larger the playing, as you can see yesterday the MMs played hard and today they played a normaly.

Unlike any TA indicator, you must keep up with this to adjust the norms, if a pattern change seems to be forming. I like to resample every 2 weeks. About how long they stay in one.

YESTERDAY
# of Trades - 506
Ave Trade Size - 20,879

TODAY
# of Trades - 590
Avg Trade Size - 13,103

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IMO; yesterdays MM selling spurt accomplished two things, some one got a mill and a half shares of GTEL low and my triangle was ripped apart.

On thing one, I'm leaning toward it may have been an outside investor directing the market maker to buy for them. Total left field statement, that entered my head from today's GM, billionaire, tender offer deal.

He could have just bought 28 million shares on the open market, but made a tender offer to purchase direct from GM. The inference was he did this to move the stocks PPs up to his tender offer price, which it did, then some.

A smart "legal" business deal. He owned 20 million already and in doing the tender offer; swung the publics opinion up to match his expectations for the company, to match his. If he just bought open market he would have gotten the shares lower but the company he believe strongly in, would have not gotten a boost.

So instead of buying low and waiting for PPs to go where he felt it should be, he gambled on traders bringing the PPs to where he thought it should be.

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Now say an investor wanted to invest small scale, and wanted to plop down over a quarter mill cash into GTEL. He could go directly to the company and get into a time consuming negotiation with legal fees and all, while the timing factor went by, or he could place a market maker order to purchase as low as possible, for him, and own what he wanted, when he wanted. UCAP came from no where and went just as fast, (spent today @ 26-27 on the ask, way down) telling me it was only a one day deal for them, why else would they do what they did yesterday? Probably plenty or reasons, but I like mine for now.

On thing two, Thing one just happened the same time, thing two was suppose to happen, bad luck!

PS: My second day trade buy order closed, the last 15 minutes of the day, down 10% from the first. Now I wait for the forming triange to work, for my 25% target. MMs letting it play out without much manipulation I can see. This could change, if volume falls below 20 mill. IMO






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