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Re: treit2002 post# 5716

Sunday, 04/24/2011 6:53:24 AM

Sunday, April 24, 2011 6:53:24 AM

Post# of 163718
"the fish business, where revenues are guided to 600% growth. Think about that. They do not make these projections without knowledge. $30M in fish revenues absolutely confirms the hugely scalable business model, virtually guaranteeing $60M in 2012 revenues, maybe even $100M. Recall earlier targets of 4 new farms in 2011 and 8 in 2012".

He did not say anything about forecasts for 2012 and 2013 (it was forward looking statements) so we do not know for sure how many farms they are planning to sell.

As far as I know, the original forecast were fish farms with a production of 250 tons. I think it would have been better if the forecast was tons instead of the number of fish farms. There is a huge difference between 250 tons and 2000 tons.

"virtually guaranteeing $60M in 2012 revenues"
60 million is way too low. This year, they have management fees from four fish farms and fish sales for six months from one fish farm and it gives a total revenue of 32.2 million.
In 2012, they have management fees from perhaps eight fish farms. It is difficult to estimate the sale of fish because we do not know when the sale starts at each fish farm. But surely we should be able to assume fish sales from at least five fish farms, compared to six months from one fish farm this year.

I am very optimistic about the future for the fishery.
But I think it takes time before the rest of the stock market discover the great potential.

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