TBB,
I have been in the stock for a bit over a year, some up but mostly down. I do think they have great technology, from my visits and conversations I have gotten the impression that they have a very smart group of programmers, and are running a very thin company with a cool product up agenst a giant that has been in the industry for a while. If it works out (and I am betting that it will) it will be a bit of the old Silicone Valley story: Small group of smart programmers upsets the apple cart of entrenched giant.
Peter clearly did come into a bit mess of a company in 2000. From what I can tell he has the respect of the folks within the company. I think he is taking on the role of the "Lighting Rod" guy attracting a lot of the negative vibes from the outside the company, perhaps to shield his guys from the kind of stuff we are reading on the boards.
I keep telling myself that the price of the stock goes up or down because people either buy or sell the stock. I am assuming this is based on what they know or feel about the company. I work to know as much as I can and to keep my emotions out of it. By the way Mr. Roberts did mention TASR with respect to SCMI in the context of a comment on a shorters worst nightmare.
I have known Ric for a bit of time, and trust his gut instincts a lot and appreciate his perspective. While he has led me to a lot of winning trades, at the end of the day I have to invest based on what I know and feel. By the way my absolute favorite stock is HYPD. I own a bit and would put more money there if I had any.
Regarding the 90 million, my personal feeling is that only about 1/2 of that will end up getting used (this is totally my own guess). The rest will expire with the merge. Hard to say if it is in the price now. I think the price is oversold for a lot or reasons, and we can all do the math based on revenue this and next year to get a good opinion on this.
Regarding Macrovision, a lot of their revenue comes from software protection, I am guessing well over half now. The other is from, mostly DVD and some CD sales (just going by what I heard) The DVD is high margin business and they no longer break out this business by sales or margin. I might guess that one of the reasons for this is because they now feel they have a competitor. There might be a feeling among those who watch the company that there is some vulnerability to this side of the business. I need to trace this down. I think the much larger and more diverse base of the business is why Macrovisions market cap would be higher. It is interesting that theirs has been slipping a lot lately as well, although it doesn’t get much notice here. I personally view it as more of a mature business and not one that I am personally interested in investing in.
