11:45:00 Fitch: U.S. Housing Recovery May Start To Pick Up by 3Q'11
Fitch: U.S. Housing Recovery May Start To Pick Up by 3Q'11
NEW YORK, Apr 15, 2011 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Link to Fitch Ratings' Report: U.S.
Homebuilding/Construction: The Chalk Line -- Quarterly Update: Spring 2011 http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=612825
Recent U.S. housing statistics have been weak and disappointing thus far as
expected, but the sector may be in for a spot of good news in the coming months,
according to Fitch Ratings in the latest edition of the 'Chalk Line'.
Most public builders will be unprofitable in the first quarter (excluding
non-cash real estate charges) with revenues trailing a year ago. That being said,
there has been a notable uptick in traffic from much of the first quarter. New
home orders have seen some slight seasonal pickup across most regional markets.
What may also work in the sector's favor is the easing of builder order
comparisons, which are challenging during the first four to five months of the
calendar year before beginning to subside. 'If the economy continues its advance
and a moderate number of jobs are added, housing metrics should, for the most
part, rise at a single-digit pace this year,' said Fitch Managing Director and
lead homebuilding analyst Bob Curran.
Nonetheless, the future state of U.S. housing remains highly dependent on the
health of the broader economy. So conversely, 'if the broader economy begins to
retreat from what gains it has made thus far, U.S. housing is in essence right
back where it started about a year ago,' said Curran.
Fitch will provide a brief recap of fourth quarter-2010 (4Q'10) as well as
discuss the outlook for the balance of 2011 during a teleconference to be held on
Monday, April 18, 2011 at 10:00 a.m. ET (separate press release to follow).
The Fitch report, 'U.S. Homebuilding: The Chalk Line - Quarterly Update: Spring
2011' was published April 15, 2011 and includes the following key updates and new
--Homebuilders' quarterly growth trends and margin statistics for the fourth
quarter of 2010, excluding the impact of non-recurring, non-cash real estate
charges, are provided as is information about the calendar fourth quarter and
fiscal year-to-date option write-offs and land value write-downs;
--Liquidity analyses are updated and historical liquidity profiles are presented
-- Recovery ratings are detailed for five single B or lower rated homebuilding
--Corporate governance profiles are supplied for each of the 13 companies
--The positive implications of future reversals of deferred tax asset valuation
allowances are discussed;
--The Dodd-Frank issues relating to 'qualified' residential mortgages are
--The Obama administration's housing reform proposals are presented, as are the
proposals and counterproposals regarding servicers and foreclosures;
--Various foreclosure statistics and related data are updated and a summary of
historical foreclosure filings is presented;
--There are also new comments on home pricing, Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac, the FHA,
tightening credit standards, price reductions for home listings and Chinese
--Fitch's economic and construction forecasts for 2011 have been updated.
Additional information is available at 'http://www.fitchratings.com'
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SOURCE: Fitch Ratings
Robert P. Curran
Fitch Inc., 1 State Street Plaza, New York, NY 10004
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