It is a development stage company and therefore it is risky! It is stem cell and its risky! It has political risks! It has technology risks! We will not know that it will work until we test it in humans!
All of the above is partly true but not as much as the market is making it to be… as least, from my perspective.
So, is an ACTC investment, riskier than a currency investment in Greece, Portugal, and Ireland? How about in comparison to Fannie? or GM?
So the rewards for ACTC is skyhigh, but do I really think that the risks is also skyhigh? Personally, I no longer think so. And let me explain.
The risks in many development stage company are mostly on the market side. They do not know whether their products will sell. ACTC do not have this risk. Instead, they have a captured market that is over 75 billion dollars worldwide.
It is stem cell. It is risky. Well, it is risky when it is not pure, spreads from the point of application, and produce tumors. ACTC’s animal studies for the Ocular applications addressed all these issues. ACTC’s RPE Cells are the purest and most robust in the industry.
Is there a process risk? No. It is off the shelf.
Are there political risks? Used to have lots. But after 2 FDA Approvals, 1 European Recommendation, Roslin MOU, and the coming dosing in about 6-8 weeks, these risks are coming down at an accelerated phase. Why? Because, Politicians will not cross a medical breakthrough that will prevent a possible cure for the blind! Besides, Governments, anywhere, will not deny their citizens the ability to see and to save costs in their national healtcare maintenance budgets.
So our last risk is technology and the very basic question, Will our RPE Cells work?
Most biochemical, drugs and biologics, are designed by humans hoping that it will be accepted by our biological system. They are not “natural” to our human biology. In short, these products are “dumb entities”. Stem Cells, and more particularly, ACTC’s cells are “smart entities” (Lanza says so!). They are smart because these cells know what to do, how to do it, and where to go! THEY ARE AT HOME AND THEY ARE IN THEIR ZONE!
Will our RPE Cells work? These are normal questions that normal people asks. Regenerative Medicine is new and not normal. And, so maybe, I am also not normal… Because my question, is not, Will our RPE Cells Work? But, Do I have any reason to believe that RPE Cells will not work? It worked 100% in a cross-specie environment during our pre-clinical animal studies! So why will it not work in humans, at home and in our own zone? It even worked with BMs from cadavers, during an explant experiment! So do I have any real reason to believe that it will not work?
Other than your normal human fear of the unknown, because it has not been tried before, I personally do not have any reason to believe these SMD and Dry AMD Trials will not work!
So, here is what I have… A captured market of an initial 75 billion dollars worldwide. Protected by Patents. A market valuation of less than 300 million. And trials that is about to begin, that people think is risky, which I dont.
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