.05 - 0.10 Share valuation range can be expected after Q2, using P/E of 10 to 20
NOTE: This is a TEMPLATE to calculate share valuation. Substitute values for your own use.
Below is an expected share valuation for C&W after Q2, using standard formulae applied to C&W's shares,
statements and business forecasts, with assumptions and explanations as noted below. $ 3.7M Gross income per month: $184 per m.t. * 20,000 metric tonnes produced/month
$ 11.0M Gross income per QUARTER: 3 * 3.70M
$ 44.1M Gross income per YEAR: 4 * 11.04M
$ 22.0M Net profit per year: .50 * 44.1M
$ 0.005 EPS (earning per share): 22,080,000 net profit/4,261,635,580 shares
$ 0.05 Share valuation (via P/E 10): 10 * .005
$ 0.10 Share valuation (via P/E 20): 20 * .005
Assumptions try to be conservative, and, with explanation, are:
- 20,000 tonnes of iron ore sold per month. This is 1/5 of forecast 100k/month for Q2 in PR on Dec. 30. Q1 "output" averaged, very arguably, 15k / month, given shipment of 42k and apparently less than 3k left behind. Q4, during ramp-up, produced some production-quality ore after 12/24 equipment delivery, quantity unclear. Q1 had delays for winter weather and other factors.
- $184 expected spot price / m.t. iron ore (peak $193 in Jan., $184 1st sale, $166 on 3/16, $177 on 4/8, Credit Suisse forecast avg. $178 and high $250 in 2011)
- Profit margin 50% (confirmation awaits Quarterly financial filings in July, Oct)
- O/S (outstanding shares) 4.261B (confirmation awaits filings or un-gagged Transfer Agent)
- P/E ratio: 10 or 20. Valuation is given for BOTH: 10 (common in mining) and 20 (common in growth companies)
NOTE: variables affect valuation, including changes in iron ore pricing, news of expanded operations, confirmation of reserves,
changes in O/S due to share buyback or dilution, and increased investor confidence due to business transparency and track record.
50% profit margin: generally expected given low-cost environment plus "sellers' market." Confirmation awaits filings for Q2, Q3.
The actual PPS of trades depends on still more, and more intangible, factors.
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