What Happens When Search And Advertising Go Mobile?
The search wars are heating up and it is becoming clear who is winning. But what happens when Google runs out of runway space? What happens when the race changes venues? Will Google see it in time or will it be Microsoft that gets “back to the future?”
Search is finding the best solution/answer and advertising, and advertising, and advertising. Advertising drives search. There will come a point where you can’t open up any more windows on your PC. There are only so many programs on your PC (surf, chat, e-mail and now desktop) that you can find ways to advertise with. When you can’t put any more pay-per-clicks on your PC screen, then what happens?
How will search advertising continue this growth once this happens? How will advertisers shift their advertising dollar to the mobile device?
There WILL come a point when there is more Internet traffic from mobile devices than PCs. What happens to search engines then? What happens to the Golden Goose of advertising when people won't be using a search engine to do their surfing?
That screen on your cellphone will be the most coveted piece of real estate to advertisers. How will advertisers advertise, then? People won't be using search engines on their phones. What replaces the "keywords" model for the advertising dollars? PHYSICAL WORLD HYPERLINKS.
The NeoMedia/SAIC Word Registry represents a way to hyperlink every barcode, word, number and spoken word, VIN number, fingerprint, and soon, RFID tag. The Paperclick platform is the browser for the physical world and the hyperlinks represent the way to directly connect every physical item in the world to the Internet.
When a TM owner registers a trademark, barcode, or word (phrase) with this registry, it is now part of a universal database and has an electronic identification. So the word Nike now isn't just a word that search engines can generate keyword revenues from, it now represents a specific URL. This completely changes how and where a search engine can direct a search user. This will also relieve the bitter trademark suits that are approaching the search engines.
3B unique barcodes (every can of 12 oz coke is just 1), 3M Trademarks, 450,000 word (phrases), numbers, fingerprints and soon RFID tags amount to over 4B interactive Web sites or over 4B unique hyperlinks. Every 12 oz can of coke in the world is considered just 1 of those 4B. 4B unique hyperlinks all providing a direct connection to the Internet without having to use a search engine. Now that the hyperlink owner has a direct connection to his site, outside of advertising, where is the need for search engine optimization? You are already optimized!
When RFID gets implemented that 4B doubles in the first year alone.
So now every barcode on every can of Coke, the printed word Coke in every magazine, billboard, tshirt ,the spoken word "coke," and a NeoMedia created code, become a hyperlink, or direct connection to wherever Coke wants you to go. 4 Billion Web sites and hundreds of billions of physical objects have now found THEIR OWN WAY to direct traffic without using a search engine. How much traffic and advertising will Google miss out on when this happens? Or will MSFT recognize that this is their opening to dominate the mobile world OS?
Companies won't give out Web sites to go to, they will advertise with NeoMedia/SAIC registered words and get a direct connection, bypassing a search engine. They will put a created code on poster, or magazine ad, or registered word on the TV screen. When any user types, scans, says this word, they will be directed to the specific site that company wants you to go.
What happens when the physical world words, barcodes, and spoken word gets registered? SAIC/NeoMedia Technologies Word Registry will be THE "KEYWORDS" for mobile. How does Google sell their "keywords" now? There won't be algorithms to decipher to put your site at the top of the search request. The registered words will be the direct link. How will Google and other SEs get a piece of these 4B plus unique hyperlinks? This registry will replace "keywords." Will you really want to see the first page of 1200 top ten results for a search on your mobile?
Between the slowing growth of PCs and the number of mobile devices connected to the Net, search and advertising will change. What companies will see this first and dominate Phase 2 of the Internet, offering the browser for the physical world?
Phase 1 was about surfing, searching, chat, and e-mail - machine-to-machine forms of communicating. It was revolutionary, it disrupted many industries, it made our economy so much more efficient, and it created many new powerful companies. The eBays, Amazons, and pricelines found a way to create businesses from Phase 1. They recognized how commerce would change with the introduction of the Internet and created businesses to accommodate this change. Not only did they disrupt the traditional methods, but by utilizing the Internet, they opened up the boundaries for potential customers.
Now comes Phase 2, and boy, I can't wait. This is what ubiquitous computing is all about. Phase 2 is when every physical item in the world can, and will be, connected to the Internet. People are no longer stuck at their office, or home PC - they are mobile, using their mobile devices for more than speaking. The combination of a portable microprocessor and trillions of objects having their own link to the Net: This is Phase 2.
When you walk down the street, look at how many people have their cell phones/PDAs in their hand or in their pocket. How many operating systems are now mobile? How many browsers are there that are untapped? Every one of those cell phones represents an Internet user. Another pair of eyes for Google. A way for Google to generate advertising, but how? How can Google continue its search/advertising dominance in the mobile world?
What if MSFT unveils the "browser for the physical world?" The PCs are "walking," untethered. This is transformation.
There are now more mobile devices connected to the Net than PCs. Mobile computing represents a new way to look at how to advertise. How do Google and others get these users to their site when we're not at a desk? What does search look like when it's mobile? How will we surf/search when we are mobile? How do advertisers and service providers generate revenues (more than the $15.00 unlimited Web access Sprint has).
What happens when society is surfing more with the mobile device than the PC? What does Google do when this happens? Will it recognize there will be more Google eyes on mobile devices than PCs? How do you sell keywords for this? What if keywords and trademarks are already registered? The bigger question, as an advertiser: How do I advertise with this new medium?
Advertisers are still trying to catch up with the eyeballs that left TV to the stationary Net. What happens when the Net shift goes from the PC to the cell phone? Will advertisers realize their new mediums are the supermarket, the restaurant, sporting goods store, billboard, movie poster, or, in other words, every physical object in the world with a unique identifier?
Google says its database is up to 8 billion now, MSFT is bragging about 5 billion. The 1 billion cans of 12 oz Coke represent 1 billion ways to get to just one site. So instead of offering access to 8 billion sites, there are now 1 billion ways (just 1 12 oz can of Coke alone) to get to Coke's site. Remember to search/surf changes when it goes public.
What happens when every can of Coke can be hyperlinked to the Net? Or every Elton John CD, or every menu, concert ticket, street sign, business card, or bag of Pringles? With a direct link to the Net, why do I need to pay Google for this? If I'm Pringles, I don't need to pay ANY search engine to get me "at the top of the list." I'm already there and I am interacting with my consumer. I now, for a small fee (by registering a barcode and word in a registry), have one-on-one interaction with a customer of mine.
Advertisers will now have a service that measures an ad's effectiveness immediately. It will merge the advertising in the physical world (magazines, TV, cereal boxes) with the Internet.
How much is this worth to a brand manager? Now every physical item in the world becomes a hyperlink to the Net, bypasses any search engine, and is the medium by which advertisers will advertise and conduct e-commerce. What companies will see this first?
Will Google realize its market is finite? The vehicle for its advertising is shrinking and is now becoming mobile. There is a head-on collision coming. The search engine and the physical world hyperlinks are on the path for a head-on collision. I'll put my money on the hyperlink - it is everywhere, doesn't matter whose OS is what, will be marketed by the advertisers, and will give me a direct connection.
MSFT, Symbian, and Palm are on all of those untethered PCs (cellphones/PDAs). Where is Google? Texting isn't direct connect. The question is, who will have the physical world browser/OS for this?
If MSFT realizes this before Google, it could license this ability NOW for the PC side and let the advertisers generate the traffic to an MSN search portal. When the mobile traffic exceeds the PC, MSFT could put this feature on all of its mobile devices and stop Google from entering the physical world. Google's keyword business will be put in serious jeopardy when the Word Registry starts. Google doesn't have a mobile OS (yet) to implement this. Google is stuck in the electronic world.
MSFT can change the whole dynamic of search, force advertisers to advertise through the MS portal, limit the Google keyword business, and then lower the boom on Google when MSFT implements this in its mobile OS. MSFT then recaptures its dominance in the OS space, but this time in the mobile device market. It then has the OS for Phase 2, a much bigger market than Phase 1, which it dominated for years.
Who will recognize this first? The boys at Google who are finding advertising markets for every part of Phase 1, or MSFT, which is looking to dominate the next space (Phase 2), which is much bigger and ubiquitous? [Scott Shaffer]
