From another board. Interesting comments.
RE: Market Opinion........
I sure can't tell the future. Who can? Not me! But I can tell you what I've been doing. I went back to the summer and fall of 1998 (Aug.-Nov.) and read hundreds of posts on various yahoo boards to see how people were reacting to the markets and their board comments during that time. Many Greenspan comments back then as well. All stating Allen Greenspan has way too much control over the stockmarket and he manipulated things back then to go down, as well. Many Many Doom and Gloom posts during those months as well. "Wont recover for years, everything, even blue chips being hit hard, etc...end of world...". Read some of the stuff, it's interesting.
In November of 1999, when he started raising rates in succession....the market kept going up...1 month, 2,3,4, and then month 5 it hit a High and then something happened all of a sudden. The real drop started. It was somewhat drastic too. Look at the chart.
My question is.....what happened in March of 2000 to make that initial huge drop occur. What was the factor that caused it??? Was it disappointing earnings? Was it unemployment or inflation? Was it the economy? Was it the bursting of the internet bubble? If it was the inital burst of the internet bubble, why did it start then? What happened in March that made things turn to the downside like they did??? Something must have happened??? Things don't happen for no reason.
Now, it's March 2001, soon to be April. People are comparing this ecomomy to 1929 Dow depression where it will take 20-25 years to recover. Many are saying the same thing will occur here and it will take decades to recover.
My question is this.....is our underlying economy in that bad a shape? Are we officially in a recession yet? Are things more similar now, in our nation and globally to 1929 or 1998..??? What about the sheer number of people involved in our economy Now to 1929. That was 72 years ago. There was No technology. There was no global communication. There were no millions of investors involved back then.
Right now, $3.8 Trillion is sitting on the sidelines in the moneymarket at bond funds. Fidelity Investments put 70% of the $25 billion it received last month (Feb.) alone in the money market. An all time high. By the way, Fidelity Investments was a Huge cause for the stockmarkets decline. The took billions out of the Market in 2000 and this same money will come back in soon. I am a Long Time Fidelity Customer and I have my own Personal Advisor.
Here is what I am trying to say. What took a generation to occur back in the 1920's, will only take a year to occur Now. The market cannot reach a bottom until everyone is Pessimistic about the future. OK, I'll say I'm pessimistic just for the sake of conformity, but in the back of my mind I know the truth. Techology is the future. If it's not, what is..?? Greenspan has more power than you think. The Federal Government could support the market if it was so inclined or halt trading all together. These guys have got power. Probably more than I know. I'm speaking of Financial Power. But the thing is, "They work for you and me"!!!
That is why I have let my congressman and the news media know how I feel about what's going on and the blatant manipulation of the market by the Federal Reserve. Interest Rates are DIRECTLY related to Everything that moves the markets to rally or sell off. Don't ever think any different.
Since it took 5 months for the rate hikes to show up in the market in 1999 and 2000. I say the same will occur in 2001.....meaning May or June. I will be accumulating my favorite stocks for the next couple of months and sending money in bit by bit to my Fidelity account. I wont look for a recovery in 20 years. I'll look for it in 20 weeks.
This is all just my opinion, based on reading many many articles and board postings of the past.
Hope that helps.
Excel - Greg
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
