Simple's Green Room

[villas]

SG, too many of us get zeroed in on the shorter time frames. It is fine if you are looking for 10/20 pip swings but to say EU is in for a big drop , and I mean at least the weekly avg range of 300+ pip, based on a 4 hour chart I think is unrealistic. At least this is what I am beginning to understand. the avg daily range for EU is 135 pips YTD and the weekly is 340 pips. Granted, the past few days have been unusual and daily range has been above the avg but the uptrend remains intact and it will take much stronger fundamentals to make a change. Europe will run out of steam and the dollar will recover at some point but not yet. The Europeans, Trichet, are determined it seems to befuddle the world with insinuations of rate increases (hawkish) at the same time Bernanke and crew carry on being (dovish). It is going to take some very solid indication of improvement in USA to get this trend turned and for now as long as people are still losing jobs and houses there is no light on the horizon yet!

When EU starts going down 200 pips a day, for several days in a row, then it might be time to say EU will drop. JMO