Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MNTA)

[tinkershaw]

tinkershaw - what do you think on copaxone patents? can MNTA win the trial

I was once offered a job as a legal analyst to find investment opportunities regarding litigation and other legal issues. I turned it down. No one can predict these things with great clarity, and I don't invest in litigation. Take it from a lawyer, that is a losing proposition.

This said, TEVA's patent position has been considered weak for more than a decade, and its patent position has not improved over the years. MNTA appears to be able to work around TEVA's process patents (even if said patents are found valid, they will still probably be uninfringed by MNTA) and TEVA's composition patents have not gotten any stronger over the years and can be shot full of holes on multiple grounds. Teva does not go into this litigation with a strong position.

But Teva has not settled because (1) Teva just wants to delay things. The longer the delay the more copaxone money they print, and (2) all Teva needs is one composition patent to stick, on just one little ground, to put a wrench in the whole thing until 2014. So from Teva's position, what the heck, they still win for losing as long as they can delay things.

MNTA on the other hand can still lose for winning if the FDA does not get around to approving the copaxone ANDA, but just simply on the litigation, MNTA's case is the stronger case. This has to be placed within the vagueries of the very human legal system that by its very nature contains a ton of subjectivety that makes determining final outcomes like picking the brackets. You know who the strongest teams are but somtimes mistakes are made and things don't work to form.

Yes, I do own a lot of MNTA shares, but not because of the litigation, but despite the litigation.

Tinker