Value Microcaps Motherboard

[lentinman]

R59: OT:

"What are your forecasted lows for the market indicies this year and over the next 18 months ?"

I don't make market high and low forecasts. See the ZEEV link in my last post. But, obviously, I am willing to forecast the direction and the time frame!

"What degree of confidence do you have in your predictions ?"

I don't know how to accurately answer that. I suppose I'm 75% sure that the early March highs will not be seen again for at least 18 months. I suppose I'm 75% sure that the the "markets" will be at least 25% below the March highs sometime in the next 18 months. We are entering the worst time of the year (April-September) and we are in year #1 of the Presidential cycle (a VERY statistically significant pattern of general weakness that should not be overlooked).

"Do you exclude any probability of this being a significant bottom with an upswing the rest of the year ?"

No. I don't exclude anything. However, I think it is very remote. I have outlined the number of clouds (serious and unique) that overhang the markets right now. If the market is higher on December 31st, 2005 than it was on March 8th, 2005, I will give up any broad market predictions.

"With oil at $50 per barrel the PE's in the oil sector look too cheap, especially with profits increasing in the future. Isn't that a safe haven for investments ?"

Was O&G a safe haven over the last week?? The VMOG (which I keep track of as you know) was a MINUS 16% in one week! I don't call that a safe haven. As much as I am a MAJOR BULL on O&G over the long term, stock prices have run up a million miles. The price of oil could easily drop into the mid $40's for an extended period. More and more drilling is being initiated. Couple that with the potential (as the market believes in the last 3 days) of an economic slowdown and suddenly the demand side of the equation is less while the supply side is more - at least temporarily. I DO NOT believe O&G is necessarily a safe haven, though I am overweighted in this sector with respect to the stocks I still own.

I do not believe ANYONE can tell you what a safe haven will be in a bloody market. Casino stocks? Maybe. Household goods? Maybe. Food? Maybe. Tobacco? Maybe. But, most likely those stocks would only go down a smaller percentage if the market drop were severe enough.

JMO.

Len