Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[cleezdeez]

Basically, I view the deflated multiple valuation as both downside protection and upside potential.

This is exactly right. PPS = earnings * P/E multiple

SIAF has an asymmetric risk/reward profile because the multiple is incredibly depressed and visibility on earnings suggest 2010 profits will be dwarfed in coming years if operations produce as anticipated. So even holding the multiple constant suggests material appreciation to the upside. But if earnings do grow as forecast and consequently prove the validity of SIAF's biz plan, the multiple will naturally expand with earnings and the PPS will uncoil like a loaded spring.

FWIW, a 15-20 P/E is absolutely not pie in the sky talk, though I would not invest on the premise of such a valuation, rather I'd consider it a free call option on Chinese ag mania in a few years time. JMO

Of course, there are risks, but those risks are what allow us the opportunity to invest in the first place. GLTA