Your earnings numbers are in the ballpark, if SIAF continues to make business targets.
IMO, they "intended" to slightly beat 2010 guidance, and keep some 2010 flower production to sell in Q1 and perhaps Q2 2011 to smooth earnings, and to contribute to beating 2011 guidance of $.49.
Unfortunately, rains held back the yields. They will make 2010 numbers because other businesses compensated, but they won't have the fudge factor going into 2011.
However, flower revenues YoY , 2011 vs. 2010 will be huge, assuming good weather.
The key to 2011+ years' earnings is indeed the fish farms, where profits can quadruple, vs organic growth of say 30% in the largest business segment, dairy.
We have no idea if they'll announce a single contract of four new farms tomorrow with a provincial government client/partner, or if single farm contracts will be announced in the second half. The later appears more likely, so earnings will be back loaded seasonally in 2011 as in the past.
Further out years' earnings growth will be largely dependent on continued outpaced expansion in the fish farm construction and fish sales; also, from the marketing and distribution network to be layered on top of everything else.
I guess the market calls the p/e multiple. I expect only a minor boost with listing to bulletin board., because the Chicom space is in such low esteem right now. Hopefully, this changes over time. A second uplisting to a more major exchange or a dual listing would help immeasurably, imo.
I do think it's pie in the sky to talk about multiples of 15 or 20 at this point.
