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Re: Alex G post# 50518

Sunday, 12/01/2002 1:07:56 AM

Sunday, December 01, 2002 1:07:56 AM

Post# of 704019
Alex....

The contrary investor piece was a very good read, and well worth the time to do so. I found it to be one of the more balanced pieces I have read on the Fed's new move to reflate the economy and its ramifications, and agree with most of its conclusions.

I was especially interested in that he had the first plausable explanation that I have heard for the current deflationary problems that are alongside a rising and close to breakout CRB index, which has been a puzzle for me.

The one place I disagree is that they refer to Bernanke's talk and paper as a "rookie mistake" - saying more than a Fed member should about potential Fed policy. I disagree strongly with that idea, and think his speech was very well vetted beforehand by the other members (especially Greenspan) and reflects the current thinking there. It was intentional, not a "rookie mistake", and I believe it accurately reflects current Fed thinking - remember the Fed white paper discussing the things that Japan could have done to prevent deflation from setting in.

Thanks again for the good read.

mlsoft

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