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Thursday, February 24, 2011 7:04:17 AM
I start with Earnings per share for a year of 1 cent ( 4.71 million/
471 million shares)(This is what I think is doable for TDGI this year,
especially with Twelve doing very well)(it really should be earnings
per share for the past 12 months but I do not think 2010 is indicative
of what this company should do)
I apply an expected growth rate of 10% annually for the next 5 years
and leveling off to 4% thereafter
I apply a 25% confidence level that TDGI future earnings will
materialize
I use a 5% discount rate
I think this is very conservative IMO. This does not include any
benefits from a merger or if they hit on a blockbuster movie. I think
earnings per share is very realistic considering the success of
Twelve.
Some would think that the 5% discount rate is too low for the risk but I have only applied a 25% confidence level for future earning
The valuation goes to 68 cents if TDGI earns $9.42 million for the year which could also happen imo.
Anyway you slice it, TDGI is very very undervalued
Chris
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