Positron Corporation (POSC)

[pennyrobin]

Actually, JJ, Markets&Markets includes Positron among their company surveys and devotes a section to "Cardiac operations – opportunity for stand alone PET". (And none of the projections I've cited are out-of-date. Rooney's projections based on the Moly shortage and reimbursement advantages are out-of-date!)

http://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/pet-market-98.html

"The global PET SPECT market is expected to grow from an estimated $6.5 billion in 2010 to $10.3 billion in 2015, at an estimated CAGR of 9.4% from 2010 to 2015. The PET segment is estimated to account for the largest share – i.e. 75% – of the overall PET SPECT installations at 3,691 units in 2010. This segment is expected to reach 6,390 units in 2015, at a CAGR of 11.6% for the same period."

a) I'm not arguing that Positron can't grow more than 11.6%. It handily beat that number in 2010! But I would expect it to perform somewhere in that ballpark. I came up with a quite optimistic estimate of 26% CAGR, based on the fact that they sold 1 machine in December 2009 and an average of 1.26 machines each month in 2010.

It's silly to talk about 1,500% YOY, as some do! We know that's not sustainable. Rooney's 200% plus estimate is also unrealistic:

2010: 15
2011: 40 (+166.66%)
2012: 120 (+200%)
2013: 240 (+200%)
2014: 600 (+250%)

15 + 40 + 120 + 240 + 600 = 1,015

Here's my most optimistic scenario, which will be a challenge:

2010: 15
2011: 18.9 (+26%)
2012: 23.8 (+26%)
2013: 30 (+26%)
2014: 37.8 (+26%)

15 + 18.9 + 23.8 + 30 + 37.8 = 125.5

b) M&M projects an increase from 3,691 to 6,390 PET machines installed globally during 2010-2015, which works out to 2,699 total global PET sales in five years. Rooney would need to immediately sieze more than 37% of total global marketshare to meet his numbers! Not likely, when even Naqvi says that Positron can sieze only 25%-30% of marketshare in ten years!

c) Hybrid PET/CT systems, including refurbished units, are expected to account for 97% of PET sales going forward. M&Ms report indicates that refurb hybrids are a constraint on PET-only sales. Did you know that Positron has a direct competitor in cardiac PET-only and refurbished hybrids, a company called Marquis? And there's another company, CardiacPetSolutions, that sells mobile cardiac PET-only--both total solution providers with attractive alternatives to Attrius. Constantly repeating that Positron has "the world's only dedicated cardiac PET-only scanner" doesn't make it so, J.J.

http://marquismedical.net/blog/latest-news/pet-cardiology-market-leaders-partner-to-help-cardiologists-perform-gated-cardiac-perfusion-studies/

http://cardiacpetsolutions.com/index.html

d) If you google 'cardiac PET market' and 'cardiac SPECT market', you'll make the interesting discovery that the only person predicting the demise of SPECT is Joe Oliverio, through various channels. (Oh, and let's not forget Al Naqvi, Rooney's paid shill.) M&M projects that SPECT will have 25% of the total PET/SPECT market going forward, 1 out of 4 units sold.

Nuff said.