Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[TJ Parker]

maybe i'm not old enuf to remember all of this, but my understanding of the semiconductor cycle seems to say that now is nothing like then (although i'm not quite sure what 'then' you're talking about'). anyway, my understanding of it is that its linked more to supply and demand and the 'chunky' nature of upgrading to new technology (building new fab, increase wafer size, decrease die size), which generally involve huge expense and lead to an increase in supply. but, again as i understand the pattern, that's almost always played out in an environment of increasing demand; its cyclical because the supply and demand curves don't match up, since you can't just add an epsilon of additional capacity when you moved to 0.13u for example.

anyway, if that's correct, this downturn has no real similarities to those previous ones ....