well, mlsoft. first, i have to say, i read this board but almost never post. second, i think you're one of the sharpest on here. (*)
anyway, i would agree with you to some extent - but probably in a more limited way than you intend. to me it does look like a "grand conspiracy" right now to make the economy look stronger than it is ("grand" because it involves lots of players who tweak the numbers (e.g. jobless claims via unusually large seasonal adjustment), report them (without reference to the adjustments), spin them, and so forth. and, in line with what you're saying, thats probably all targeted towards the consumer during xmas shopping season.
but on a larger scale, i *do* have to believe that the powers that be are not so panicked that they'd take the kind of risk you're suggesting as their solution to the problem. the way i see it: the market made its sharp reversal this fall as corporate bond spreads were breaking historical extremes. the situation would become pretty bad for our major corporations they are locked out of both equity and debt markets. so i'd think the turnaround that's been engineered is more directed towards that, with only a secondary target (short term) being consumers and wealth effect. and its had this effect: bonds, convertible debt, secondary offerings, and so forth. however, i have to believe that greenspan would not look kindly on wallstreets bubblicous fervor that's piggy backed on top of this.
and there - it seems to me, anyway - its just games as usual.
putting aside the big caps, the little craps that have moved - that _could_ be seen as similar to last year at this time. around then, i was watching kopn, attempting to short. though the rally continued through january, kopn lost its momentum in mid december and came crashing down early, after doing a public offering. right now, i've been watching it again, together with stuff like pmcs. in the latter case, the price has been jammed back up to august levels, even though short interest had already fallen to 12 month lows last month. but - to my eyes at least - there have been signs of distribution there all this week. and then there are two of your favorites, cof and mbi, which really haven't moved out of the range they've been trading in over the last few months.
(*) also a great admirer of LG, who saved me a lot of money in spring 2000, and don sew ..
