Short Term Trading Member Forum

[techcharter]

Winning Percentages for Trading

I've been developing a trading system. I tried a whole lot of things. One strategy gave me a 72% probability predicting the direction of the following day's close. This is based on 2 sets of 100 points of data. One was from 1950, the other from 2010. I plan to backtest using 70 years of daily closing prices. I've got some ideas to explore that could increase the success to 80%.

Before you ask what my approach is, I'll tell you: Spectral Analysis. It was not easy. I learned a great deal.

I read that Hurst had a 90% success rate over a 3-4 month live test. I've heard that 60 to 65% success rate is "outstanding" for a professional floor trader. How does the 72% success rate compare with other technical analysis trading strategies?