Interesting synopsis on Egypt and the Middle East;
With the fall of the Egyptian government, the most likely scenario at this point would be a takeover dominated by the Islamic extremists, the Muslim Brotherhood. Should that take place there would be several serious security implications for Israel and the Middle East. Here are a few:
F-16's – There are reported between 220 to 300 F-16 fighter planes in the Egyptian air force. If these fall into the hands of Islamic extremists, within just a few minutes flight-time from Israeli population centers, Israel will be faced with the necessity of destroying them. What would the world reaction be then?
Sinai – Israel gave back the entire Sinai desert in the 1979 peace treaty with Egypt. What Israel got in return for this enormous territory was a piece of paper, and a promise to keep the Sinai demilitarized. The Muslim Brotherhood has already declared that they do not recognize the treaty, because it hinders the interest of the "Uma," the Islamic Nation. What will Israel's options be if Egypt cancels the treaty or if they start moving troops into the Sinai? Should they attack or not?
Gaza – As part of the peace arrangements, Egypt was to guard the border with Gaza. If that border becomes totally open to armament build up coming from Islamic extremists through Egypt, the Gaza conflict will escalate dangerously.
Peace Process – An Islamic takeover in Egypt will deny the basic foundations for possible future peace negotiations with the Palestinians, or any other surrounding Arab state. It would be evident that even if a treaty is signed with a moderate Arab leader, a future takeover by Islamic extremists would simply cancel the treaty, exploit Israeli concessions, and increase arms buildup.
