Sunday, February 06, 2011 4:28:04 AM
The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord 02/02/11 TY_George
* Wednesday, February 2, 2011
For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: neutral
Monitoring purposes GOLD:Gold ETF GLD long at 134.43 on 12/17/10
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
Above is a longer term view of what may be expected in the coming weeks for the SPY. In late December 2010 the SPY/TRIN ratio hit into the 150 area where previous market highs have formed. At the 2000 top the SPY/TRIN ratio made a double top at the 150 level that lasted about 4 months before turning down through the red line triggering a sell signal. The MACD (top window) turned up through its moving average and also triggered a sell signal at the same time. At the 2007 top the SPY/TRIN ratio stayed above 150 for nearly 6 months before turning down and closing below the red line triggering a sell signal. The MACD of the SPY/TRIN ratio had a bearish crossover at the same time. Currently the SPY/TRIN ratio has hit into the overbought level above 150 but neither the MACD of the ratio or the ratio itself has had a bearish crossover and suggests the longer term trend is still up but overbought. It may take a couple of more months for a potential bearish signal to be triggered. The SPY/TRIN ratio measures the ARMS index against the SPY. In general the ARMS index consistently stays above 1.00 in a falling market and stays below 1.00 in a rising market and the SPY/TRIN ratio helps to identify this graphically. The MACD of the SPY/TRIN ratio helps to smooth out the wiggles. The previous major crossovers of the MACD at the 2000 and 2007 tops where timely. The current SPY/TRIN ratio suggests more time is need before a signal will be generated or if at all. We are expecting little upside from current levels because this ratio has hit into overbought levels. We are staying neutral for now but a signal form this ratio could develop in March or April.
Above is the weekly chart of GDX. GDX is hitting two trend line supports, first is the one up from January 09 low and the other is the Neckline of the Head and Shoulders bottom. The weekly Chaikin Oscillator is in an area where previous lows have formed in the past and has turned up. The Bottom window is the Slow Stochastics and it has reached levels where significant lows have formed and has started to turn up. Second window up is he Bullish Percent index which also appears to be turning up. In general GDX should find support in this range and start another up-leg. The Head and Shoulders pattern on GDX has an upside target near 92 which is about 70% higher then current levels. GDXJ should outperform GDX on the next rally phase.
Above is the weekly chart of GLD which is the etf for Gold. Last week GLD hit the support line connecting the lows from October 2008. Also last week the weekly Chaikin Oscillator appears to be turning up and suggests GLD is also turning up. There are four sentiment readings suggesting gold is making a low near current levels and they are the COT which is at bullish levels, the Premium on Central Gold Trust (GTU) was selling at a discount, The Cash flow for the Rydex Precious Metals fund is at an area where previous lows have formed and Public opinion for Gold is at bullish levels. Another up-leg should start soon that may take GOLD to new highs.
Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. Long DNN on 12/17/10 at 3.20. Gold ETF GLD long at 134.43 on 12/17/10. Long CXZ at 1.52 on 12/14/10. Sold AVARF on 12/13/10 at 4.06 for 61.1% gain; Long AVARF at 2.52 on 4/26/10. We are long MFN at 9.83 on 11/11/10. Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Sold RDNAF at .57 on 1/19/11 for 27% gain; Long RDNAF at .45 on 10/29/10. Long CGR at 1.24 on 5/11/09. Long IROG at .52 on 5/10/10. Long PMU at .20 on 4/6/10. We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long KRY at 1.82 on 2/5/08. We long KGC on average price at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html
George.
* Wednesday, February 2, 2011
For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: neutral
Monitoring purposes GOLD:Gold ETF GLD long at 134.43 on 12/17/10
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
Above is a longer term view of what may be expected in the coming weeks for the SPY. In late December 2010 the SPY/TRIN ratio hit into the 150 area where previous market highs have formed. At the 2000 top the SPY/TRIN ratio made a double top at the 150 level that lasted about 4 months before turning down through the red line triggering a sell signal. The MACD (top window) turned up through its moving average and also triggered a sell signal at the same time. At the 2007 top the SPY/TRIN ratio stayed above 150 for nearly 6 months before turning down and closing below the red line triggering a sell signal. The MACD of the SPY/TRIN ratio had a bearish crossover at the same time. Currently the SPY/TRIN ratio has hit into the overbought level above 150 but neither the MACD of the ratio or the ratio itself has had a bearish crossover and suggests the longer term trend is still up but overbought. It may take a couple of more months for a potential bearish signal to be triggered. The SPY/TRIN ratio measures the ARMS index against the SPY. In general the ARMS index consistently stays above 1.00 in a falling market and stays below 1.00 in a rising market and the SPY/TRIN ratio helps to identify this graphically. The MACD of the SPY/TRIN ratio helps to smooth out the wiggles. The previous major crossovers of the MACD at the 2000 and 2007 tops where timely. The current SPY/TRIN ratio suggests more time is need before a signal will be generated or if at all. We are expecting little upside from current levels because this ratio has hit into overbought levels. We are staying neutral for now but a signal form this ratio could develop in March or April.
Above is the weekly chart of GDX. GDX is hitting two trend line supports, first is the one up from January 09 low and the other is the Neckline of the Head and Shoulders bottom. The weekly Chaikin Oscillator is in an area where previous lows have formed in the past and has turned up. The Bottom window is the Slow Stochastics and it has reached levels where significant lows have formed and has started to turn up. Second window up is he Bullish Percent index which also appears to be turning up. In general GDX should find support in this range and start another up-leg. The Head and Shoulders pattern on GDX has an upside target near 92 which is about 70% higher then current levels. GDXJ should outperform GDX on the next rally phase.
Above is the weekly chart of GLD which is the etf for Gold. Last week GLD hit the support line connecting the lows from October 2008. Also last week the weekly Chaikin Oscillator appears to be turning up and suggests GLD is also turning up. There are four sentiment readings suggesting gold is making a low near current levels and they are the COT which is at bullish levels, the Premium on Central Gold Trust (GTU) was selling at a discount, The Cash flow for the Rydex Precious Metals fund is at an area where previous lows have formed and Public opinion for Gold is at bullish levels. Another up-leg should start soon that may take GOLD to new highs.
Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. Long DNN on 12/17/10 at 3.20. Gold ETF GLD long at 134.43 on 12/17/10. Long CXZ at 1.52 on 12/14/10. Sold AVARF on 12/13/10 at 4.06 for 61.1% gain; Long AVARF at 2.52 on 4/26/10. We are long MFN at 9.83 on 11/11/10. Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Sold RDNAF at .57 on 1/19/11 for 27% gain; Long RDNAF at .45 on 10/29/10. Long CGR at 1.24 on 5/11/09. Long IROG at .52 on 5/10/10. Long PMU at .20 on 4/6/10. We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long KRY at 1.82 on 2/5/08. We long KGC on average price at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html
George.
Trade at YOUR OWN: Risk, DueDiligence, RiskTolerance. Trading Responsiblity is Totally Yours!
You are Spending Your Money, no one elses! Be Wise, Be Thinking, Be Deliberate!
Be Lucky, Chichi2
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