Biotech Values

[tinkershaw]

AGEN,DSCO,SNSS, MRNA, CTIC, OXGN, CYCC, HLCS, DDSS, STEM, APPA, PARD, ANPI, ALXA, ENMD, APRI, BCRX, ACUR,

Any of these companies have a drug that is doing something absolutely unprecedented of the type of thing that telaprevir or tysabri did? Or how about what EXEL's drug has done (subject to further data, but 19/20 is long past unprecedented)?

As an example DSCO. Their drug is incrementally superior, in some clinical trials to the SoC. But hardly an unprecedented medical advance. I would not lump a single one of them in the ranks of such drugs as telaprevir or tysabri.

These are on my somewhat doubt list, but it's possible they might be "biotech values". Affy, vvus, xoma, bcrx, Sva

Again, anyone of them have an unprecedented drug? VVUS is trying to bring to market a new version of two existing drugs, one of which has been shown to be problematic. It works. People lose a good deal of weight on it, but really, anything unprecedented about it? A lot of drugs will cause you to lose weight, but it is the side effects and the blood lipid levels that matter. I mean speed and many amphetimenes are great for losing weight. I do think AMLN has a weight loss drug that is a medical advance in regard to its efficacy and side effect profile, but it is still 3-5 years from market I would estimate.

I think your bunching a bunch of companies together instead of having the patience to find those very few drugs (and there are not always any to choose from) that truly are unprecedented.

I don't think anyone would disagree, if XL-184 data holds up going forward that it will be a remarkable medical advance. And I say "if" as we don't really know what the data means for a variety of reasons from short-duration to ambiguity present in bone scans and no standards. But I have heard experts discuss the topic, doctors discuss it, anecdotal information from patients on it, and it all supports the fact that something is happening here, and it is unprecedented. The question becomes when do you become interested in it from an investment perspective?

As for the companies you presented above, I don't know if you can name one drug that fits this sort of definition that it represents a potential medical advance like telaprevir or tysabri? Find me one, and then I may get excited to look further, otherwise, I will pass on it. XL-184 stands out because it MAY be yet another such drug (we will find out), but it stands out because of this.

Tinker