CCME - I was reading through the document. First pass and will read again some other time.
Revenue Estimates:
if you can get over all the fluffy stuff of buses/demographics, the whole MW reports rely on two key assumptions:
1) Revenue per (sales) employee is assumed to be 250K
2) Sales team of 70 persons.
If those two numbers are good estimates, multiplying those two numbers, you have $17M (=250K*70) revenue for CCME, not the 95.6M as claimed by CCME.
However, those assumptions are not necessarily true:
1) Revenue per sales employee could be as high as $412K, per AMCN, which MW quoted in Page 20 of the report.
2) The attachment within the MW report (Page 24 of the report, or the second page of appendix) clearly shows that CCME has 110 direct sales, plus agency distribution channel not figured in MW's revenue estimates.
Direct revenue = 110x412K = 45M (almost 3x of MW's estimates.)
Agency revenue =?
If you add the agency channel, which was the primarily sales channel for CCME, you could reach $95.9M revenue, as stated in the begining of MW report (page 2).
Cash is King
As we said before, the cash is key. CCME consistently insist that they have plenty of cash ($160M), mostly in retained profits. MW claims that CCME is not profitable (or barely profitable - hard to have profits with only $17m revenue.)
So validate the cash - and the history of the cash.
There is no way that people will put in $160m cash just to do what? - get 1x or 2x of cash back through pumping? There are easier and legal ways to double or triple the value of $160m+ cash in China than pumping a stock with a risk of losing all, and get arrested at the same time.
AI
