Looks pretty tightly held, to me, and I don't think that there really are all that many shares out there in play...
Yahoo says:
Shares Outstanding: 135.62M
Float: 124.62M
% Held by Insiders6: 61.77%
The percentage held by insiders works out to 83,772,474 shares, leaving only 51,847,526 held by the public... around 50 million after considering the holding of the investment group from Colorado.
The brief history seen on a weekly chart shows that when it was run up to a dollar, accumulation topped out at around 8 million shares, and now, some months later, with it looking a lot closer to exhaustion near the depths in a market low, the distribution also has maxxed out at around 10 million shares. That says maybe as many as or even a bit over 10% of the shares have been in play during the shifts in the trade thus far ? That would be around 13.5 million shares in the flux. While that is possible, I'd be pretty surprised if it were that many...
For a stock that's been through the gyrations this one has in the last year, it seems there aren't all that many shares participating in the trade. Certainly seems that the insiders are holding pretty tightly onto the shares that they have.
Anecdotal evidence suggests that there are still some few holders from last year who are continuing to hold, and continuing to express confidence in the long term potential of the company.
While I'd be surprised if shorts weren't "mostly" responsible for the direction of the trade in the first half of last year, shorts don't appear to be an overly large part of the current trade. Chart patterns still look like someone here may have been playing the short side until just recently, but the obvious volumes in that trade look like they're generally still under 1 million. Doesn't mean there aren't still some unresolved short interests left over from last year, either... but, it looks to me like any shorts who were still playing here have covered recently, and, given the early and recent history, it doesn't appear to me to be a particularly appealing short candidate anywhere near the current levels.
A quick look at the Yahoo Key Statistics isn't anywhere near the limit in DD that needs doing, but, they show a Market Cap of 2.45M against an Enterprise Value of 2.98M and only $288K in debt... which, for an .OB stock that is current in its SEC reporting requirements, etc., isn't exactly indicating that there are any obvious issues with over-valuation.
None of that above does much to make much of a case for any significant upside, either... but, it defines a situation in which the typical sorts of business and market risks that exist for an early stage company appear to be at least properly discounted...
Given where they are trading now... they are trading close enough to the value of a solid OTCBB shell to suggest that the risks are probably well enough balanced...
There has been a fairly steady drip of bad news openly applied in the last few months... that appears likely to have both provided some basic "welcome to the U.S. market" lessons for management, along with some significant degree of distraction.
Looks to me like they're on track in delivering a solid enough set of responses to that set of challenges...
I'm not one who does the DD looking for a "perfect" management that has never made a mistake... rather than one who wants to see a few mistakes made, and addressed, to see how management handles problems, corrects mistakes, and adjusts their effort looking forward. Too often, I see inexperienced (and, sadly, well seasoned) management teams that will allow their pride to overwhelm better judgment in how they deal with unpleasant realities.
Thus far... I like what I see here... not because it is perfect, but, because it shows a young management that has been presented with a couple of opportunities to amplify obvious mistakes with inputs that appear to be focused on something other than making proper corrections... and, they appear to have consistently chosen "doing the right thing" rather than anything else.
For me, having a management you can trust to do the right thing when they are faced with the need for admitting a mistake... is a VERY basic thing that I value a lot. Of course, it isn't nearly enough, in itself. You still need to see they can do something other than make mistakes that need correcting... and can make corrections that matter in the business without those problems first generating failures, before they are motivated to act in implementing change and making better choices.
The best management there is won't be able to deliver a success in a project that isn't well positioned or properly structured to make it possible to enable one, so, the DD challenge from here is to consider the potential, and what is needed (including what is needed from them) to best enable them in exploiting it. The result delivered will be due to their effort, and it isn't going to be measured against any fixed standard... rather than against the reality of market utility and market acceptance...
IF they are able to make it work... BLGW could prove to be HUGE...
So... broadly stated... the DD question is: given the potential and the opportunity they have, what has to happen for them to be able to make it work ?
There ought to be some milestones we should be able to generate for evaluating progress in the business... that will allow us to focus on some things other than success in "fixing mistakes"...
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