Biotech Values

[tinkershaw]

http://www.in-thought.com/resources/GilenyaSurvey.WK.16Nov.pdf

Here is a detailed piece put out a few months ago as to anticipated mareket for Gilenya. Survey indicated that only 14% of patients are right for first line Gilenya use. These are patients that would probably go straight to tysabri or other aggressive treatment up-front anyways.

From this analysis, until more safety data is gathered (probably 3-5 years at least I would think). Report predicts $1.5 billion in sales in 2017. I don't know the cost, but using $25K per year, per patient (which is on the cheap end compared to tysabri for example) equals 60,000 patients on the drug in 2017, which would equate to about 9000 copaxone patients lost to Gilenya in that year.

It should be noted, that these patients may have been lost to tysabri or other medication anyways if they were not responding well to copaxone.

I was a bit more concerned about this myself, and the analysis can still be totally wrong and Gilenya just take over the entire market, but the drug had some serious safety issues in its clinical trials that were concerning, particularly at its more effective dosage. It does not seem to be associated with PML though, last I looked.

But that is the best information that I have on the issue. I've brought up the issue, if Teva successfully defends its patents, and MNTA can only launch copaxone in 2014-2015, what might be left for it? I like having time on my side, and since I am very confident MNTA will get copaxone approval at some point, time we do have on our side (unless copaxone fades materially away over time). It seems the chances are very high that copaxone will still be a front line drug, and in fact may grow stronger with a generic on the market, at least through the next 5-7 years.

If Teva successfully defends it patents, then that would give Teva the chance to put its new version of copaxone on the market as an alaternative, but since that is nothing more than a different dosage methodology, a generic copaxone should eat its lunch as insurance is going to be wary of paying a premium for something you can get in a cheaper generic. So time has consequences, and leave Teva with an opportunity still if they can delay things long enough.

Nevertheless, a good sized copaxone market should exist at least until MNTA can get its generic on the market, and the copaxone market will continue to grow in both users and price increases until that time. Lets give Teva credit for that!

Tinker