The USD index did break below the 18 month FLD into the early Nov. low, a late 40 week cycle low which actually ran 50 weeks. Price took out the supposed 4.5 year cycle low of Nov. 2009. Bearish.
A 10 week cycle low is due and should lead to some kind of bounce in February, but then at some point the USD should slide into the next 40 week and 18 month low due this summer.
This looks like a bearish 18 month cycle for the USD Index, this coming in the first 18 month cycle off the Nov. 2009 4.5 year cycle low. If this phasing is correct, and it seems to agree with Bob's original work, then the USD is already in a bearish trend in this current 4.5 year cycle. An 18 month low is due in the June timeframe +/- month.
Bear in mind that if this analysis is correct, we are about halfway through a bearish 9 year cycle for the USD.
Here is the longer view with the 4.5 and 9 year cycles agreeing with Bob's original phasings.
Airedale thought that the 4.5 and even the 9 years nest of lows was Dec 2004
So if you are wondering when a good SPX multi-month swing short might setup, I'd wait until there is some evidence of a USD rally before getting really brave.
cheers,
john
PS bubbleboy, hope that helps you on the USD Index phasings. And BTW, I am using the THT nominal Hurst setting for this analysis.
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