from sirrealist on SI:
To:2MAR$ who started this subject
From: SirRealist Wednesday, Nov 20, 2002 1:17 PM
View Replies (2) / Respond to of 81759
All my signals point to a breakthrough on our third attempt to get past the August high. It looks like we could do it today late or gap above it in the am, and then we're off to the races.
Sounds good, right?
I'm going to make a huge recommendation here.
Don't be greedy. Don't wait for every cent tomorrow. Cash out early. In no case should you hold overnight Thursday night. If you see the mkt reach 1475, bail out.
My charts say it may hit higher points, from 1486 to 1631. But there's a strong chance that you'll lose more than you gain by hanging in there that long.
IMO, the market sentiment favors a run through Thanksgiving Friday. By my estimates, 1631 is impenetrable in any event, if that's where the sentiment leads us.
But where the risk lies is pretty easy to see.
On 10/27, the first fasting day of Ramadan began. Tomorrow night is Lailatul Qadr and Monday is Eid-al-Fitr or the 1st of Shawwal, which is celebrated with a three day feast, fairs and more, as the fast ends.
If you'll note, there's only Friday as a trading day between the two. I won't be trading it; I won't even wait till near the close tomorrow. Because 1 pm tomorrow afternoon EST is 8 pm in the Middle East.
And here's why tomorrow night in by Middle East time could prove significant:
>>On the evening of the 27th day of the month, Muslims celebrate the Laylat-al-Qadr (the Night of Power). It is believed that on this night Muhammad first received the revelation of the Holy Quran. And according to the Quran, this is when God determines the course of the world for the following year<<
If you recall, we've had recent warnings of a coming spectacular attack. After 11 months of laying low, OBL has suddenly emerged again, specifically warning America, Britain, Canada, France, Italy, Germany and Australia.
Why would he choose now to announce he lives?
To say to the poorest classes in Middle Eastern countries "Hey, have heart, I'm alive, follow me after my next move" ???????
I think so.
Leave the money on the table. Prepare yourself and protect your families. It might be a good time for a 3 day trip to the mountains, even. In any case, avoid risky places, as I suspect a series of assaults, with megacities and capital cities most at risk.
I called it wrong on Memorial Day, Independence Day and the anniversary of the Hiroshima bombing, all points where the mkt was weak.
We all know that by any measure this mkt was overvalued even at 1108. If we gap open tomorrow, we'll have 6 gaps open since the 1108 bottom, a very porous NASDAQ chart.
A spectacular attack, or a coordinated series of attacks, would knock the wind out of the market while most are long.
The final pieces in the puzzle to watch for are the dollar and the XAU. Drawing a line from the peak area of the buck through today brings a line around 106.5 or slightly above there. And drawing an underline on a 2 year XAU chart would be around 57-58.
Right now, the dollar's at 105.80 and it typically moves 65 cents on an average day, so it easily could take out the target. The XAU is up at 65.50, off 75 cents from today's top. Look for a big gold swoon late today and tomorrow.
Whether it dips to 57-58 or not is immaterial. A mkt and dollar rally with sinking gold tomorrow, should be sufficient evidence if my warning isn't.
And ya might find it enjoyable spending another day or two with the family, in any case.
Take care, and good luck to each of you.
