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SilentOne

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SilentOne

Re: bubbleboy post# 45096

Thursday, 01/20/2011 5:48:57 PM

Thursday, January 20, 2011 5:48:57 PM

Post# of 51876
Welcome aboard the THT train bubbleboy. I have been waiting patiently for some Hursties to get involved.

Nice work on the long term cycles. I'm not sure where the last 4.5 and 9 year lows occurred. But I have an important cycle low due sometime before June 2011. It could be as early as March but I will have to have a closer look tonight.

A lot of traders are looking for the start of a major bear market in bonds. Given we are likely in the last 9 year cycle, a major bear is not likely until we see a break of your long term trendline. My thought is another good test of that trendline might be the place to go long bonds for a trade.

BTW, what data are you using form the 30 year?

cheers,

john
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