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Re: Traderfan post# 69113

Wednesday, 01/19/2011 6:08:52 PM

Wednesday, January 19, 2011 6:08:52 PM

Post# of 94785
That's an odd piece, because Timothy Moe's last published research from Jan 17th is the following:

"China Portfolio Strategy
A-share outlook: growth
amid challenges


Launching A share strategy. 2011 outlook: growth amid challenges

Our forecast is for the CSI300 to reach 4,000 by end-2011 (28% upside from end-2010 levels), mainly driven by earnings growth. More frequent policy adjustments and large/small cap style rotations are among the major challenges in investing A shares in 2011E. We expect the market to trend up, but with high volatility.

Upside remains for growth but policy concerns cap valuation

We forecast CSI300 earnings growth of 18% 2011E, driven by 15.6% topline growth and a slight expansion in margin, unexceptional based on historical levels. Our GS/GH bottom up earnings growth estimate is 2.6ppt lower than WIND consensus and 5ppt lower than our top-down earnings model. We are less optimistic on valuation expansion as frequent policy changes may cap substantial re-rating.

Liquidity supportive, and better than in 2010

Despite the widely anticipated slowdown in money supply in 2011, we think other factors, like the mid-long term trend of Chinese households’ shifting towards riskier financial asset allocation, should continue to support A share market liquidity. This trend may be accelerated amid higher inflation, and thus more negative real interest rates over 2011E.
Equity financing, shares unlocking among other indicators all point to better liquidity conditions than in 2010.

Structurally aggressive; favor consumer, industrials, materials

We prefer sectors more exposed to stronger global growth and less
influenced by unfavorable domestic policy to start this year. Specifically we like retail, autos & parts, coal, building materials, capital goods, container shipping and see utilities, oil & petrochemicals, telecoms as least attractive."

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