Funny thing... I ALREADY realize the potential... which is why I'm a buyer. But, then, I just don't ever rely on others to do my realizing for me... ;<)
On other topics... I should try to make a note of some of the gross errors that I have seen foisted off as facts here recently...
The Chinese invest in plenty of early stage projects... they are putting $41 million into Globe Metals and Mining to fund the feasibility study for their niobium property in Africa. That property is pretty clearly not as large or as well situated as Nemegosenda... and Nemegosenda is farther along, too, given the history of exploration and the mineralogical studies that have already been done. While I like the SRSR property better, Globe's deal is also not the deal I'd want, since the Chinese are taking a 51% interest for their money, and it appears from prior filings that their intent is to use the "mine" (if it gets that far) to produce concentrates, which they will ship to China for processing, rather than making ferroniobium on site.
I'd rather have what SRSR has, would rather have Scott doing the deal making than Globe's guys, would rather have a management that will insist on producing value added products rather than concentrates, etc.
On the shorts... not having noted their participation before an obvious 5 million shares in one day is pretty amazing. I see constant reminders they're deep in this trade... not least the character of participation in discussions... but clearly enough on the charts as a matter of routine. The point is that the 5 million shares weren't likely "establishing" a short... rather than a demonstration of commitment to defending an existing position. The trade was clearly intended to cap any move higher last week, and it was as obviously paired with an effort in an acceleration in covering as it was obvious in its own right.
Otherwise, on balance, the shorts aren't winning the battle at this point... so they're changing tactics trying to intimidate the market with the postured scale of their effort seen in "one off" trades... big enough one day trades that they are even noted by those who otherwise aren't aware enough to be well attuned to the structure of the trading... while the underlying groundswell of interest and support is already proving more than a match for their effort. That effort is made "necessary" for them in playing defense of their interest now... because... in spite of their effort in manipulation of investors and of charts... accumulation continues.
The impact on the shorts of a financing being done for Nio-Star will depend on how it is done... but, none of it will be useful for them, and now, it is really only a question of how bloody it will get for them... which will depend on the structure and timing of any deal that is done.
Worst case for them will be in realizing some set of deals that others have noted are possible... which the PR clearly hinted at as potentials being "considered" (but... when ?) An "external" move to have the event occur as a RM takeover of SRSR, or with a spin out (but not off) of Nio-Star, say, by using a shell company that has been pre-prepped for trading on the TSX, with a combination of a JV by, and sales of Nio-Star shares to and by a 3rd party financier, with an announcement of a planned "post" distribution of some number of Nio-Star shares to SRSR holders... paired with an IPO to launch trading in the new entity. They'd have to cover SRSR shares now to prevent an open ended liability in needing to cover new SRSR company shares and Nio-Star shares as they are being issued... which could trap them into having to cover by buying those as IPO shares. I wonder how the market would react to an Dahlman Rose sponsored IPO of a major new, and well funded, niobium and REE focused JV company named Nio-Star ?
Of course, as long as you are going the holding company route, you might as well spin out Shining Tree at the same time, in the same way... so shorts would have to cover shares of SRSR now, or shares of SRSR, Nio-Star and Shining Tree Gold later...
They could throw in a reverse split and a small cash distribution to SRSR holders along with the other deal features just to make it a bit more fun...
That is why you see interest in covering already happening now... with an effort made to enable covering at as low a price as possible. That is why the shorts have become "obvious" to those who normally don't notice them... as things are now getting much harder for them.
Other obvious errors seen here recently... No stock has been halted for "doing too well"... it was halted for pending news prior to the announcement of news, after having already moved higher in anticipation... a routine event.
As far as the updated values in the table...
It is useful to have the variable % lines... but, note, the numbers you get still suffer from a couple other errors... so you have to use them properly.
On the positive side, there is still a huge upside potential in the resource, as there is a lot more there than just what has been shown to exist in the Hawke and SE zones.
On the downside, the number you show is a "total" value from extraction, using an inflated "retail" price for a list of finished products that havn't had any operating (small) or finishing (large) costs deducted to create them... and then, that fixed residual # isn't distributed over time along with the financing and operating costs the way it should be, so it doesn't discount the time value of $ required to get the stuff out of the ground and refine it to the degree it has the listed value. Slice the numbers in half for a JV, and in half again, just because... and then what you have is closer to a number that is the residual "gross income" over the entire life of the project... so, divide that by the years you expect in the life time of the extraction effort for the resource, after considering the impact of the increased supply on price... and then... give it a P/E...
The lowest number on the chart then goes from $1.65 to $0.82 to $0.41 (just because) divided by 10 years... that is $0.041, with a P/E of 10... back to $0.41 as something like a NPV. Probably still a bit high, as a lot of things haven't been costed out or divided for the time functions. The good news then is that there are some multiplications to do as well as divisions, while using the line with the 1% figure in the raw value of the resource is a gross low ball... so you should move higher up the chart, depending on market conditions... currently looking like something closer to the 5% line would be more realistic... while the 10% line will be more realistic again when there is greater certainty about the economy... and, at the top of a commodities market boom and price highs, you might go much higher... for no reason other than being trendy at the top in a market fad driven bubble... so, future expansion in the P/E is possible.
Reality for now is probably in the wiggle room between the lines... with 1% being low... and 5% (without consideration of the cost and time functions) probably still being high, but within the ball park with time... so a proper NPV or share price target for the ONE zone only... is likely somewhere between $0.40 and $2... which, surprise, surprise, is well within the range of the raw number of $1.65 ? Add in the other zone and you're at $5 to $7... which is clearly not unreasonable... after financing (including the 50% already deducted for that).
The bigger issue, then (at least, for me) is how you improve your position on the chart. Part you accomplish by attaining a better share price % line... by advancing the project over time, while minimizing the impact of dilution... which SRSR has done VERY well. The other bit is accomplished by changing the chart... adding resources to it over time, and adjusting values for the market over time. A smallish number of new holes poked into carbonitite rocks around the perimeter of the donut might change the numbers... a lot. Market froth with P/E expansion and continued real growth in demand will each have similar impact.
The rest is waiting... because we're not yet at a market peak in commodities, rather than in the early stage of a VERY long term secular bull in commodities... similar to that the planet experienced at the beginning of the industrial revolution. That is true because of the fact of population growth... while we are bringing both India and China into the modern global market economy at the same time... which has that dramatic an impact on the scale of and growth in demand for resources. There are a LOT of people in China and India... who all want to own a car and an IPod... and who are now just beginning to accumulate the wealth to be able to afford them.
The table is useful as a tool for making some rough wags... just need to be careful that your use of it is proper... because you know what it doesn't consider as well as what it does... and know what the time functions and trends are.
The element of patience required to realize all that value in the success of the development of a mining business... is still not a function of weeks rather than months and years... but, the payoff for having the patience required to see it through to development is suddenly leaping up a few % lines on the chart, or expanding the resource numbers on the chart again, with "events"... while continuing to grow the resource at some pace X over time will also sustain that ability to expand in leaps...
Do too large a deal too soon, for too much % or too little $$$... and you'll lose more than is gained in the short term with the loss of long term potential you could have kept. A relatively SMALL bit of $$$ applied to better definition of the scope of the total resource... will have the potential to be a huge multiplier...
I think "we" (shareholders) probably know less about the deposit than IS known, now by the "professionals" doing the analysis of all the data, so, I think there is good potential that we're both farther along on the time line than many expect... with potential that deals done now might be more significant than many expect...
Enough for today ?
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