Monday, January 17, 2011 11:36:33 AM
As to where STANDARD OIL COMPANY USA, INC. (SOCU) will trade in the future is up to the company and the substance that will be delivered and confirmed through the eyes of the market.
From what has been released from SOCU thus far…
Now, before reading the valuation below, know that it is not the gospel and is only a thought to consider from the approximately USD $30 Million in revenues that’s expected to be generated by SOCU annually.
I think it’s fair to assess a 75% Net Expense Margin for SOCU out of the $30 million in Revenues. That would leave a Net Profit Margin of 25% that we could consider as Net Income to derive an Earnings Per Share (EPS). I use such an amount because I believe it to be conservative for our purpose of deriving an EPS. Anyone can use the Substitution Property to use different margins higher or lower if they like, but the formulas used below are consistent with basic accounting principles for deriving an EPS.
We also know that the Outstanding Shares (OS) for SOCU is 972,529,454 shares. We know that knowing this number is important because the OS is used as the key fundamental denominator in the formula below to derive an EPS to derive a fundamental valuation:
Revenues – Net Expenses = Net Income
Net Income ÷ OS = EPS
Net Income = $30,000,000 Revenues x .25 Net Profit Margin
Net Income = $7,500,000
OS = 972,529,454 shares
So…
$7,500,000 Net Income ÷ 972,529,454 OS shares = EPS
.0077 = EPS
Now we must consider multiplying the EPS with a Price to Earnings (P/E) Ratio to determine where SOCU should fundamentally trade with knowing that a P/E ratio is a growth rate for the stocks that exist and trade within the same industry and sector as SOCU. Within the link below, we can clearly see that the P/E ratio for the applicable Oil and Gas Industry is 11.90, but within its Basic Materials Sector the P/E ratio is 34.94 which justify the use of a more than fair 12 as a conservative P/E Ratio:
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/1conameu.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/123conameu.htm
.0077 EPS x 12 Conservative P/E Ratio = .092 per share valuation
This means that SOCU could very well fundamentally be worth and trade in the area of .092+ per share from just the news that have already been released from the company. If major news is released from the company as what many here are expecting, then all logic is off for trading at .092+ per share… it will trade higher.
Again, the above thoughts are nothing more than that… thoughts. It is going to be up to SOCU to prove its substance to the market of which it appears that such is slowly happening. I think the next update should really place SOCU back on the map.
v/r
Sterling
Sterling's Trading & Investing Strategies:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=39092516
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