Biotech Values

[tinkershaw]

HCC and Ovarian data are very good compared to other drugs at this stage. If EXEL had enough resources, I am sure they would move forward on those two indications along with mHRPC.

If that is the case, then there is a lot more potential than just what was shown on the bone scans. Which makes me more comfortable at the current share price.

I do hear you on wanting an even lower price. We all do. You might get one on the bone scan data in February. I don't expected 45/50 resolutions or the like, all that is required is consistent extraordinary data. Since bone scans like this just don't resolve themself, if they were to get 10/50 that would be extraordinary, but would probably not help the share price. If they get 20/50 or better, I think the share price will soar again, particulaly with more supporting data on the legitimacy of the effect.

If it is a bust however on these 50 patients, then you will have your chance to buy at a cheaper share price. I have just learned not to buy into a drug unless there is something special, extraordinary about it. Such as telaprevir (bought in 2005 in low teens), tysabri from ELN (but in low single digits twice), of bydureon from AMLN (again single digits) or menoxaparin from MNTA (again single digits), as examples. Those drugs worked, worked well, worked better than anything out there, we all knew it, etc., and you could buy them when the shares were really pounded by the inevitable FUD that periodically makes its way around any such drug. But more ambiguous drugs, even if they are somewhat better in clinical results, I just don't want to bother with. I can understand the stock, but I am not expert enough to understand the ambiguous nuances of the science.

So we shall see if XL-184 (whatever they are now calling it) continues to stand out or not. I think there will be a big share price move one way or another after the February presentation (if there is not a pre-release notice of the top line update prior to the presentation in February.

Tinker