Zipjet,
I'll take a listen when I get the chance as well (also want to listen to MAKO's presentation).
Did you pick up anything of interest from the call?
I do have to agree though with Jq (not having listened to the call myself yet). EXEL, to my understanding, is planning a 2H 2011 start. I doubt if recruitment can be completed in 2011, so that moves into 1H 2011. If survival is an end point, no way the trial finishes prior to 2H2012, more likely 1H2013. Prostate cancer survival, late case, from my experience with DNDN, you are talking 12-18 month survival expectation under the SoC, and that is just the median. If the drug is really making an impact, the beneficiaries will live longer than this, and we can hope much longer (although with provenge it was a 4 month advantage).
If the end point is pain, or some other shorter end point, then it could end quicker.
The trial should enroll quickly however, given the current results. Assuming the February data comes out and does not tarnish the present stunning results, there will be no problem enrolling in the trial, and it may be one of the faster enrolling trials we will see for cancer.
I'll let you know if after listening to the call I have a change of opinion, but I to have heard many an aggressive timeline in clincal trials, and I've never seen one pulled off (at least one that succeeded in the end).
But, then again, if this drug's results maintain their dramatic efficacy, as the early 19/20 results, yeah, I guess it may be able to move through quickly.
Company, that could have sat on its cash printing laurels, is betting the company on it. Either they have some real confidence (as they could have continued to print stock options), or they are just crazy!
I'm sure we've both seen both mental states turn out to be true in the end.
I do own some EXEL shares, so I'd love to see a rapid fire boom-boom to market, but things are as they are, and usually they are as Jq is indicating, no matter what management says.
Thanks Zip.
No fret however, if further data comes out (like with VRTX) that shows incredible and undeniable efficacy, the share price will continue to rise until there is little upside to waiting for the NDA (picture AMLN, probably left 20-30% upside in the end for the NDA, which is why I sold out prior to the NDA in AMLN. I'd wager the same will happen in EXEL as the data, if it remains consistent, will be that transparent for the market to see and project forward).
Tinker
AI
