Morning davidjk,
I don't want to make you feel too comfortable that you have all the time you want to accumulate, I simply meant we "probably" won't see much of a bump till the mine life extension. There are a grip of expected updates expected during Q1, and quite honestly the company has tossed out a few surprises recently, any of which could possibly become reflected in share price. I believe you do have a bit of time, but don't get me wrong and get caught with your pants down as when this does move, I'm certain it will be with very little warning. I simply meant that I think this is a great chance to be patient and accumulate at a lower price, not to hold off all together for some months...
As for this new deal they just made with the oil company, it's still a bit too early to know exactly what this means. They're essentially forking out a few million to see what their recent drill results will be and then already have the paperwork completed to swoop in and grab 'em cheap. After they own nearly 85% of this new company, this could be something big down the road as well for them, but it's entirely too early to know just yet. If the results are not favorable, it's my belief they will cut ties and lose a bit under $3MM, nothing too severe for how much they continue to bring in. I must admit though, this move certainly perplexed me as I really want them to focus on Balabag and mine life extension. Get the bootstrap mine up and operational, and after that start focusing on Tamarok. They know mining very well and have proven this to us thus far, how well they know oil is a bit unclear. But this certainly sounds like a favorable opportunity to buy something cheap - which should be profitable. Check them out, they're further along then I think most people expect.
Your article is a good one that I remembered reading some time back. So much of it remains true to this day; The killer shark loan has been paid off and is gone! Zinc was delayed till just last month when they finally got it going. They had some trouble getting the right results, but worked through it and is now up. We never got those Balabag drill results as was expected, but that should come here shortly. (and keep in mind we're probably not going to see the full results, just enough to prove they have enough to be profitable to get the bootstrap mine operational rather then obtaining a loan) It's my belief they held off on results to do some further drilling to assist where to locate the bootstrap mill itself. Pending what these results are, this might give us our first major % bump in price, and that's expected this quarter.
Here is a quick breakdown for ya of what's coming up this quarter, any of which might get attention.
- EOY report which I’m sure will provide further guidance, and take confidence knowing they met their expectations for 2010.
- Zinc Circuit is in full production, which adds millions of extra dollars to each shipment...without any further costs as this was lost money from previous shipments.
- An update on the scope study of Balabag gold project, shortly followed by the full 43-101 proving even further gold reserves at Balabag. (And it is my firm belief that the major investors will promptly jump aboard upon the scope study, it's the banks who will demand the full 43-101, and a loan is not the way they're attacking this play...they're going with a bootstrap mine which will begin production much sooner)
”An internal scoping study has been launched and TVI expects to come to a decision regarding a "Bootstrap" mine development plan in Q1, 2011.”
- An update to Siennalynn project as they're working diligently on the scope study and 43-101 to be released ASAP, which is expected to at least double the current mine life at Canatuan.
“It is anticipated that Stage 1 drilling will be completed by mid-Q1, 2011 with assays and evaluations completed by the end of the same quarter. Preparation is ongoing for the Stage 2 drill program. The extent of this additional drilling will be determined as progress is evaluated during Stage 1.”
- An update on the addition of seven of the Company's rigs that will be returned from Kyrgyzstan during Q1, 2011. These rigs will be used on the Siennalynn, Balabag and Tamarok exploration projects. (This will double the number of rigs they have from 7 to 14, and just in time with so many future projects coming to fruition!)
- Part 1 and Part 2 of the airborne surveys are expected to be completed by early 2011.
- Getting back out to Hong Kong and Singapore to present what they have, where they will likely get the most positive reaction from. And let's not forget it has been mentioned they are interested in being listed on the Asian markets.
- “Drilling is expected to begin on identified targets on the Tamarok copper-gold prospect in early 2011” - which holds the potential to be a HUGE project!
- Lastly, keep in mind the current bull run that commodities have been on; copper in particular for these folks. Just look at what they got from this past shipment, $9.7MM (from the average of $8MM before). So if copper can hold steady (and is expected to continue a 5 year bull run) then that alone is nearly an extra $2MM per shipment. Add in the zinc and we're looking at an estimated EXTRA $30MM this year (assuming they make 8 shipments as has been in the past). Their revenue this next year from Canatuan alone might come very close to $100MM.
