No news is required until Jan. 27 at which time disclosure of a completed JV deal or its dissolution must be announced as it will impact on our bottom line. I see that as a 2 1/2 week window of opportunity allowing for volatility to take hold. It makes this the ideal time to unload a few trading shares. $6.52 made sense to me early this morning and I sold a few.
Shares could realistically be expected to drop to the low $5 range before a last minute run-up prior to the announcement of the JV deal and the amount of cash being infused as a result of that. This will solidify HDY's baseline share price valuation.
Something I never see here or at IV is mention of the trader's revised cost basis. This isn't the brokerage's representation of your CB based on the average of prices paid throughout your accumulation process. That representation exists as a function of IRS-required tax information. Instead, it's the price per share representing your accumulated purchase and follow-on purchases less profits taken along the way via shorter term swing trades.
Revised cost basis approaches can be an interesting and revealing way to monetize the investor's true prowess as it incorporates his/her sensitivity to the stock pick's fundamentals, charted results, feel for knowing when to up the ante or sell into realized profit potentials. On the surface, many of us may seem to be holding across-the-board shares with a CB of, say, $5 when, in fact, those shares might actually represent $1 or lower.
I thought of this over the weekend and was pleased for having discovered what is, for me, a new tool.
WT
