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Monday, January 10, 2011 1:28:10 AM
40% efficiency(downtime/breaks/ packaging kits transfer from machines, employees moving slower than machines / hiccups etc) = 360/hr
1 shift per day = 2,880 kits per station
1 shift output x 250 work days = 7,200,000 kits
1 shift (56 stations) = 40,320,000 kits
MAX Revenue 1 shift 56 stations=$141,120,000(40,320,000x $3.50)
30% margin (bulk rate) 42,336,000
est shares issued by 2012 130M
100% utilization PE ratio of 20 (could be 50) 6-7 dollars per share
50% utilization PE ratio of 25 (could be 50) 4 dollars per share
this is a much more conservative estimate than the other one but i think its the best for investors to use, also i wouldn't count on 100% production just based on the hubbard stats, i think licensing may be a big source of income, also consider that alot of machine space may be reserved for future technology and other things they will produce, just may take longer and have different maybe higher / lower profits
PE ratio of 20 for a company that is growing fast sounds about right but for small caps it could easily be 50-100 or higher PE's don't generally constrain upstarts with lots of new tech in the pipeline like NNLX
remember they have other potential revenue sources including licensing tech or production, so relying on the hubbard income alone will be too limiting to the share price overall
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