Farmers may “Run-Out” of Phosphate in 2011
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Wed, Jan 5, 2011 Feature Articles, Potash Articles
By Leia Michele Toovey- Exclusive to Potash Investing News
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digg Share Fertilizer prices will continue their recovery in 2011, buoyed by high grain prices and shrinking stockpiles. In 2010, fertilizer prices recovered, with phosphate returning to its pre-recession value. Since April 2010, market prices for potash climbed 5 percent to $526 per tonne, and phosphate prices rose 31 percent to $661 per tonne.
The rise in crop prices has been a major driving force behind the rise in fertilizer prices, as soaring grain prices increase farmer’s incentives to maximize per acre yields. Now, while grain prices remain high, the renewed demand for fertilizer has in turn increased phosphate and potash prices. In November, Purdue University economists forecasted double-digit percentage increases in the variable costs of growing corn, wheat and soybeans in 2011, with fertilizer prices being the driving force behind the increases. Since April 2010, fertilizer costs made up 41 percent of farmers growing expenses. The USDA estimated average per-acre fertilizer expenses for 2010 at $124.26 for corn, $57.32 for wheat and $22.46 for soybeans.
The Fertilizer Institute estimated that U.S. Phosphate use was estimated to be down 25 to 29 percent in 2008-09, up 26 to 30 percent in 2009-10 and up another 8 to 10 percent in 2010-11. Potash use is forecasted to be up 31 to 35 percent in 2009-10 and 10 to 12 percent in 2010-11. Analysts have already warned that extremely tight phosphate inventories could put significant constraints on supplies and further buoy phosphate prices. In some areas, analysts caution that phosphate supplies may be used up, resulting in a delay for farmers to get their hands on much needed phosphate.
